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Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

Deutschland verwandelt sich aufgrund der geringen Geburtenrate allmählich in eine »Gerontokratie«. Diese Entwicklung hat fatale Folgen für die Funktionsfähigkeit der staatlichen Sozialsysteme, insbesondere für die Rentenversicherung, denn es fehlen die Beitragszahler, die zukünftig zur Finanzierung der Renten nötig sind. Prof. Dr. Hans-Werner Sinn trägt die wichtigsten Fakten zur demographischen Krise zusammen, zeigt die Folgen dieser Krise, ergründet ihre Ursachen und diskutiert staatliche Maßnahmen, die langfristig wieder eine ausgeglichene Bevölkerungsstruktur herbeiführen könnten.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:05:p:20-36
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_5_4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
    2. Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel, 2003. "Die steuerliche Förderung von Familien im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 65-67, March.
    3. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
    4. Alessandro Cigno & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2000. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 394, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    6. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cigno, Alessandro & Camillio Rosati, Furio, 1997. "Rise and fall of the Japanese saving rate: The role of social security and intra-family transfers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 81-92, March.
    8. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bergs Christian & Schaefer Thilo & Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas, 2007. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung: Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 1-27, April.
    2. Barbara Henman, 2004. "Zu den ökonomischen Zusammenhängen zwischen Renten-, Familien- und Bildungspolitik – Ein Plädoyer für die Aufwertung der Erziehungsrente je Kind," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2004, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    3. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, February.
    4. Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2003. "Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung Sachsens in der laufenden und den nächsten Dekaden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 9-26, June.
    5. Egger, Peter H. & Radulescu, Doina M., 2012. "Family policy and the number of children: Evidence from a natural experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 524-539.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geburtenrate; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Rentenfinanzierung; Alternde Bevölkerung; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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