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Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung Sachsens in der laufenden und den nächsten Dekaden

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  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger

Abstract

In dem entwickelten Szenario überwiegen die Auftriebskräfte so stark, daß das sächsische Bruttoinlandsprodukt über dem deutschen Durchschnitt wachsen wird. Dies gilt insbesonderer für die laufende Dekade. Danach werden sich die Standortbedingungen in Sachsen relativ verschlechtern. Bei den Erwerbstätigen zeichnet sich ein weitreichender Strukturwandel ab. Obwohl die Gesamtzahl im Trend leicht sinken wird, dürfte der Berg von heute 400.000 Erwerbslosen bis 2030 weitgehend abgeschmolzen sein, da im gleichen Zeitraum aus demographischen Gründen das Arbeitskräfteangebot in Sachsen deutlich abnehmen wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2003. "Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung Sachsens in der laufenden und den nächsten Dekaden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 9-26, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:10:y:2003:i:05:p:9-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2002. "Die rote Laterne - Die Gründe für Deutschlands Wachstumsschwäche und die notwendigen Reformen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(23), pages 3-32, December.
    2. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2003:i::p:20-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wolfgang Franz & Rainer Fehn, 2002. "Die Vorschläge der Hartz-Kommission," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(15), pages 3-9, August.
    4. Michaela Votteler, 2002. "Sächsische Exporte expandieren 2003 wieder kräftig," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(06), pages 28-40, October.
    5. Wolfgang Ochel, 2003. "Hartz and more: Zum Abbau der Arbeitslosigkeit durch Leiharbeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(01), pages 21-32, January.
    6. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2002:i::p:03-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn & Christian Holzner & Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel & Martin Werding, 2002. "Aktivierende Sozialhilfe - Ein Weg zu mehr Beschäftigung und Wachstum," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(09), pages 03-52, May.
    8. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Boede & Michaela Fuchs & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftsprognose; Arbeitsmarktprognose; Sachsen;

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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