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Europe's Demographic Deficit

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  • Sinn, Hans-Werner

Abstract

Due to exceptionally low birth rates, the dynamism of Europe will be lagging behind that of other regions of the world for the time being. The paper assembles a rich body of comparative empirical data to clarify the extent of the demographic problems for the EU countries. It advances the view that the low birth rates in part result from early government interventions in terms of socializing the fruits of human capital investment via the pay-as-you-go pension system. To mitigate the extent of socialization, it considers a policy of freezing the contribution rates within the existing pensions systems, forcing the childless to save and providing an additional tax-financed "child pension" tax to parents.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:934
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/934/1/sinn-europes-demographic-deficit.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alessandro Cigno & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2000. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 394, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Brunner, Johann K., 1996. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 131-146, April.
    3. Homburg, Stefan, 1997. "Old-age Pension Systems: A Theoretical Evaluation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 233-246.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2000. "Rentenniveausenkung und Teilkapitaldeckung - ifo Empfehlungen zur Konsolidierung des Umlageverfahrens," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(18), pages 12-25, June.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2004. "EU Enlargement, Migration and the New Constitution," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 50(4), pages 685-707.
    6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1998. "The Pay-As You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," CEPR Discussion Papers 2023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
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    12. Werding, Martin, 1998. "Zur Rekonstruktion des Generationenvertrages," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 3, number urn:isbn:9783161468896.
    13. Uebelmesser Silke, 2004. "Political Feasibility of Pension Reforms," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, September.
    14. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Immigration Following EU Eastern Enlargement," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 40-47, October.
    15. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, January.
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "Pension Reform and Demographic Crisis: Why a Funded System is Needed and why it is not Needed," CESifo Working Paper Series 195, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Werding, 2006. "Kinderrente und Vorsorgepflicht - der ifo-Vorschlag zur Lösung der demographischen Krise des Rentensystems," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(07), pages 44-53, April.
    2. Koen Caminada & Kees Goudswaard, 2008. "Revenue Effects of Tax Facilities for Pension Savings," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 233-246, June.
    3. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "Demographic Pressure in the European Union," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Robert Fenge & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2006. ""Generation Enkellos" und Rentenbeitragsrabatt für Eltern," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(05), pages 11-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension system; birth rate; human capital; demography;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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