IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eei/rpaper/eeri_rp_2012_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Pressure in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Marga Peeters
  • Loek Groot

Abstract

On top of the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union, demographic change is exerting enormous pressure on public finances. We analyse four policy options: lowering pension benefits, increasing labour market participation of the native population, immigration and participation of older people. Our results show that the most publically indebted EU economies face the highest increases in public spending on the retiring baby boom generations over the coming decades. Fortunately for these economies, it turns out that adjusting their labour market participation is easier than for their neighbouring economies within the EU. Increasing labour market participation to 60% keeps several countries largely out of the woods.

Suggested Citation

  • Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "Demographic Pressure in the European Union," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2012_11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
    2. Coen Teulings & Casper Vries, 2006. "Generational Accounting, Solidarity and Pension Losses," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 63-83, March.
    3. Auerbach, Alan J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Leibfritz, Willi (ed.), 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226032139, December.
    4. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1997. "Aging and Public Pensions in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 29-42, January.
    5. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "Demographic Change Across the Globe," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 13(2), pages 75-98, April.
    6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
    8. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, March.
    10. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Introduction to "Generational Accounting around the World"," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoevenaars, J. & Ponds, E.H.M., 2008. "Valuation of intergenerational transfers in collective funded pension schemes," Other publications TiSEM 2c1afa01-df29-490e-bc52-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. repec:pri:cepsud:74bradford is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Osmel Manzano & Jose Luis Saboin, 2021. "Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Gretchen Donehower, 2018. "Measuring the Gendered Economy," Working Papers cwwwp4, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    5. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. David F. Bradford, 2001. "Reforming Budgetary Language," Working Papers 128, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    7. Bohn, Henning, 2009. "Intergenerational risk sharing and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 805-816, September.
    8. Holger Bonin & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2014. "Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 117-137, June.
    9. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
    10. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938, February.
    11. Bohn, Henning, 2001. "Retirement Savings in an Aging Society: A Case for Innovative Government Debt Management," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt59r83559, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    12. Holger Hinte, 2014. "What determines the net fiscal effects of migration?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-78, June.
    13. Mulligan, Casey B., 2000. "Can Monopoly Unionism Explain Publicly Induced Retirement?," Working Papers 157, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    14. Krishanu Pradhan, 2019. "Analytical Framework for Fiscal Sustainability: A Review," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 24(1), pages 100-122, June.
    15. Alan J. Auerbach & Philip Oreopoulos, 2000. "The Fiscal Effect of US Immigration: A Generational-Accounting Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 14, pages 123-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Omar Aziz & Norman Gemmell & Athene Laws, 2016. "Income and Fiscal Incidence by Age and Gender: Some Evidence from New Zealand," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 534-558, September.
    17. SHIMASAWA Manabu & OGURO Kazumasa, 2016. "Will Abenomics Save Future Generations?," Discussion papers 16100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván & Tarcali, Géza, 2001. "Korosztályi elszámolás a magyar nyugdíjrendszerben [Generational accounting and the Hungarian pension reform]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 291-306.
    19. Koch, Daniel, 2011. "Wirksame Begrenzung von Staatsverschuldung auf europäischer Ebene," Discussion Paper Series 114, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    20. Kazakova, Maria & Trunin, Pavel, 2015. "Long-Term Prognosis of Basic Demographic and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia," Published Papers 2308, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    21. Sanches, Fabio Miessi & Souza, Andre Portela, 2007. "(Un)Sustainability and reform of the social security system in Brasil: A generational Accounting Approach," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(3), March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; fiscal policy; labour; ageing; European Union.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia van Hove (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeriibe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.