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(Un)Sustainability and reform of the social security system in Brasil: A generational Accounting Approach

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  • Sanches, Fabio Miessi
  • Souza, Andre Portela

Abstract

In this paper we apply the Generational Accounting methodology for the Brazilian public sector and for the two social security systems of the country – RGPS (private sector workers system) and RPPS (civil servants system). On the whole, in the basic scenario we found an imbalance of 98%, what is equivalent to say that future generations will face a fiscal burden 98% higher than the fiscal burden faced by an individual born in the base year. The imbalance observed in the RGPS and RPPS are also higher and has important impacts over the total imbalance. Moreover, the imposition of a set of social security reforms will tend to promote the intergenerational balance when we consider all taxes and transfers. Notwithstanding, the generational imbalance in the social security systems will persist. These considerations, in turn, indicate that the Brazilian public sector will continue to collect huge amounts of wealth, consumption and property taxes in order to afford the imbalance in its social security systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanches, Fabio Miessi & Souza, Andre Portela, 2007. "(Un)Sustainability and reform of the social security system in Brasil: A generational Accounting Approach," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 61(3), March.
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:61:y:2007:i:3:a:1089
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    1. Fábio Giambiagi & João Luis de Oliveira Mendonça & Kaizô Iwakami Beltrão & Vagner Laerte Ardeo, 2004. "Diagnóstico da Previdência Social no Brasil : O que foi Feito e o que Falta Reformar ?," Discussion Papers 1050, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Leibfritz, Willi (ed.), 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226032139, October.
    3. Afonso, Luís Eduardo & Fernandes, Reynaldo, 2005. "Uma Estimativa dos Aspectos Distributivos da Previdência Social no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 59(3), July.
    4. Junior, Roberto de Goes Ellery & Bugarin, Mirta N. S., 2003. "Previdência Social e Bem Estar no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(1), January.
    5. Erling Steigum, Jr & Carl Gjersem & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting and Depletable Natural Resources: The Case of Norway," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 369-396 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Ferreira, Sergio Guimarães, 2004. "Social Security Reforms under an Open Economy: The Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 58(3), July.
    8. Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura & Hiroshi Yoshida, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Japan," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 447-470 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, August.
    10. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Introduction to "Generational Accounting around the World"," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 1-8 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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