IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

A global view on demographic pressure and labour market participation

  • Groot, Loek
  • Peeters, Marga

Demographic change across the globe puts pressure on labour markets and public finances. Most studies on ageing focus on the projected development of the old age dependency ratio, being the ratio of persons 65 or older relative to the working age population. This ratio gives a very incomplete picture of the (fiscal) pressure from demographic changes. In this study, besides the share of the dependent population composed of the young and the old, we also include the share of the working age population that is not active on the labour market, labelled as the labour market space. By analysing 21 developing and 29 developed economies across the globe, we cover 75% of the 9.3 billion people that the United Nations projects for the whole world in 2050. A new indicator, relating demographic pressure from fiscal spending to the available space at the labour market, enables us to quantify and compare the pressure-to-space across countries over the time span 2010-2050. The indicator points out that Poland, Turkey and Greece are most under pressure. Developing countries, such as Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania will experience a very low pressure up to 2050 in case their fiscal spending per young and elderly person remains at the current levels. In most of the countries under high pressure there seems to be room for using the labour market space by, for instance, working more hours or increasing the retirement age, as this will alleviate the fiscal pressure. This suggests a policy trade-off between maintaining publicly financed services to the dependent population and maintaining labour market space.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32057/1/MPRA_paper_32057.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32057.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32057
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. repec:gdm:wpaper:2807 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
  3. Volker Meier & Martin Werding, 2010. "Ageing and the welfare state: securing sustainability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 655-673, Winter.
  4. Oded Galor, 2011. "The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 17057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Pissarides, Christopher A., 1998. "The impact of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages; The role of unemployment benefits and tax structure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-183, January.
  6. Lawrence H. Summers & Chair, 2004. "General discussion : global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 73-81.
  7. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2010. "Aging And Saving In Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 46-55, 02.
  8. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Van Der Veen, Robert & Groot, Loek, 2006. "Post-Productivism and Welfare States: A Comparative Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 593-618, October.
  10. A. Lans Bovenberg, 2008. "The Life-course Perspective and Social Policies: An Overview of the Issues," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(4), pages 593-641, December.
  11. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 00/18, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Peter Jarrett, 2011. "Pension Reforms in Poland and Elsewhere: the View from Paris," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 425, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  13. Paolo Mauro & Mark A. Horton & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "The State of Public Finances; A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/21, International Monetary Fund.
  14. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 12621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. repec:gdm:wpaper:6110 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Joel Mokyr, 2004. "Commentary : global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 57-71.
  17. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Demographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare," MPRA Paper 31101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Charting the Economic Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 12379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Mohamed, Issam A.W., 2011. "Challenges of formal social security systems in Sudan," MPRA Paper 31611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.