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The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Caceres
  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Mr. Marco Committeri
  • Mr. Borja Gracia

Abstract

Libya is highly dependent on exhaustible and volatile hydrocarbon resources, which constitute the bulk of government revenues. Although resource wealth provides the means to promote socio-economic development, procyclical fiscal policies threaten macroeconomic stability as well as fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity. In three parts, this paper provides an assessment of the cyclically adjusted fiscal stance, analyzes fiscal sustainability according the permanent income framework, and simulates various fiscal policy rules with the objective of developing a rule-based fiscal strategy that would delink the economy from oil price fluctuations, improve the management of resource wealth, and safeguard macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Caceres & Mr. Serhan Cevik & Mr. Marco Committeri & Mr. Borja Gracia, 2013. "The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya," IMF Working Papers 2013/079, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/079
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    Cited by:

    1. Aldo Fabricio Ramirez-Zamudio & José Luis Nolazco Cama, 2020. "Assessment of fiscal effort and voluntary tax compliance in Peru," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 12(1), pages 55-88, June.
    2. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Hitchhiker's guide to inflation in Libya," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    3. Al-Darwish, Ahmed & Cevik, Serhan & Chami, Ralph & Charap, Joshua & George, Susan & Gracia, Borja & Gray, Simon & Pattanayak, Sailendra, 2012. "Libya beyond the Revolution: Challenges and Opportunities," MPRA Paper 82683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. World Bank Group, 2015. "Toward Solutions for Youth Employment," World Bank Publications - Reports 23261, The World Bank Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; hydrocarbon revenue; budget deficit; exchange rate; government spending; Fiscal policy; cyclical adjustment; fiscal sustainability; permanent income hypothesis; fiscal rules; natural resources; public financial management; fiscal policy rule; potential GDP; natural resource; expenditure rule; financial asset; Fiscal stance; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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