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Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior

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  • Serhan Cevik

    () (International Monetary Fund, U.S.A)

  • Katerina Teksoz

    () (Columbia University, USA)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal policy behavior and its time-varying volatility, using panel data for a broad set of advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1990–2012. The empirical results show that discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by policy inertia, the level of public debt, and the output gap in both advanced and emerging-market economies. In addition, the paper finds that macro-financial factors (such as real exchange rate, financial development, interest rates, asset prices, and natural resource rents) and demographic and institutional factors (such as the old-age dependency ratio, the quality of institutions, and policy anchors such as fiscal rules and IMF-supported stabilization programs) tend to have a significant effect on fiscal policy behavior. The results also indicate that higher government debt leads to more volatile fiscal behavior, while fiscal rules and higher institutional quality reduce the volatility of fiscal policy over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgm:jbfeuw:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:5-33
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:367-378 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    3. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:eee:poleco:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:69-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2015. "Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112800, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; fiscal reaction functions; fiscal policy volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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