China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk
China's economic growth has, hitherto, depended on its relative abundance of production labour and its increasingly secure investment environment. Within the next decade, however, China's labour force will begin to contract. This will set its economy apart from other developing Asian countries where relative labour abundance will increase, as will relative capital returns. Unless there is a substantial change in population policy, the retention of China's large share of global FDI will require further improvements in its investment environment. These linkages are explored using a new global demographic model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Interest premia are integral with projections made using these models and in this paper their influence on China's economic growth performance is investigated under alternative assumptions about fertility decline and labour force growth. China's share of global investment is found to depend sensitively on both its labour force growth and its interest premium though the results suggest that a feasible continuation of financial reforms will be sufficient to compensate for a slowdown and decline in its labour force.
|Date of creation:||May 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Canberra, ACT 2601|
Phone: +61 2 6125 3807
Fax: +61 2 6125 0744
Web page: http://rse.anu.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002.
"Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
- Ruttan, Vernon W., 2002. "Productivity Growth In World Agriculture: Sources And Constraints," Staff Papers 14176, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Jörg Mayer, 2002. "The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, June.
- Jörg Mayer, 2003. "The Fallacy Of Composition: A Review Of The Literature," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 166, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
- John G. Fernald & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Puzzles in the Chinese stock market," International Finance Discussion Papers 619, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John G. Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2000. "Puzzles in the Chinese stock market," Working Paper Series WP-00-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
- Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
- Matthew Higgins, 1997. "Demography, national savings and international capital flows," Staff Reports 34, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
- Steven A. Symansky & Peter S. Heller, 1997. "Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian “Tigers”," IMF Working Papers 97/136, International Monetary Fund.
- Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
- Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-469, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Lipsey, Robert E., 1994. "Quality change and other influences on measures of export prices of manufactured goods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1348, The World Bank.
- Terry Sicular, 1998. "Capital Flight and Foreign Investment: Two Tales From China and Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 589-602, July.
- Terry Sicular, 1998. "Capital Flight and Foreign Investment: Two Tales from China and Russia," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9803, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- John G. Fernald & Hali J. Edison & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cai Fang & Wang Dewen, 2005. "Demographic transition: implications for growth," Labor and Demography 0512001, EconWPA.
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: what do the industry data say?," Staff Reports 115, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Sir H. W. Singer, 1998. "Beyond Terms of Trade: Convergence/Divergence and Creative/Uncreative Destruction," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 1(1), pages 13-25, May.
- John G. Fernald & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer, 2004. "An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 539-588, September.
- Harrigan, James, 1995. "The Volume of Trade in Differentiated Intermediate Goods: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 283-293, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)