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Appreciating the Renminbi

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  • Rod Tyers

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  • Iain Bain

Abstract

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with an underlying real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, which sees growth as stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity and associated rises in wages and non-traded prices. Yet, while evidence on China’s productivity and prices supports this hypothesis, its real exchange rate has shown no long run tendency to appreciate. The use of a global numerical model allows extensions of the hypothesis, including failures of the law of one price for tradable goods, which point to WTO accession trade reforms and China’s high saving rate as key depreciating forces since the late 1990s. The same model is then applied to the implications of premature RMB appreciation. It is shown that, unless this is achieved in association with the repatriation of foreign reserves, which would require thus far unavailable financial depth in the Chinese economy, unilateral RMB appreciation would be destructive of both Chinese and global interests.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2007. "Appreciating the Renminbi," Departmental Working Papers 2007-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2007-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    20. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2007. "The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Rod Tyers, 2008. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Zhibai Zhang & Langnan Chen & Xinyue Zou, 2015. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(12), pages 1267-1281, December.
    4. Rod Tyers, 2012. "The Rise and Robustness of Economic Freedom in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Rod Tyers, 2015. "Financial Integration and China's Global Impact," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    7. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 66-88, February.
    8. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-491, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    9. Tyers, Rod, 2014. "Looking inward for transformative growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-184.
    10. Rod Tyers, 2014. "Analysing the Short Run Effects of China’s Economic Reform Agenda," CAMA Working Papers 2014-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Short Run Effects of The Economic Reform Agenda," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang & Tsun Se Cheong, 2013. "China’s Saving and Global Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    13. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.), Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Rod Tyers & Ling Huang, 2009. "Combating China'S Export Contraction: Fiscal Expansion Or Accelerated Industrial Reform?," CAMA Working Papers 2009-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    17. Menzies, Gordon & Xiao, Sylvia Xiaolin & Dixon, Peter & Peng, Xiujian & Rimmer, Maureen, 2016. "Rural-led exchange rate appreciation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 15-30.
    18. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," CAMA Working Papers 2014-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. repec:eee:asieco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:39-52 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese economy; real exchange rate; economic growth; productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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