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La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Bouveret

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sana Mestiri

    (SDF - Laboratoire Structure et Dynamiques Financières - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    () (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La sous-évaluation de la monnaie chinoise vis-à-vis du dollar est souvent dénoncée comme l'une des causes des déséquilibres mondiaux. Les autorités américaines soutiennent que la Chine manipule son taux de change tandis que la majorité des travaux empiriques estiment que le yuan est sous-évalué de 15 à 30 %. Cet article montre que les modèles de taux de change d'équilibre généralement utilisés ne sont pas pertinents pour une économie en développement telle que l'économie chinoise. La Chine souffre d'un sous-emploi massif ; un taux de change sous-évalué au regard des critères traditionnels lui permet d'impulser la croissance vigoureuse nécessaire pour résorber son chômage. Plus généralement, le taux de change optimal d'un pays émergent ne peut être défini que relativement à une stratégie de croissance : plus le pays désire une croissance vigoureuse, plus il est prêt à faire un effort d'épargne, plus il doit pratiquer un taux de change faible. La première partie de l'article décrit les points saillants de la croissance chinoise depuis 1994, où la Chine est passée en change fixe avec le dollar : croissance élevée mais sous-emploi massif, faible inflation, accumulation massive de réserves, forts taux d'épargne et d'investissement. La deuxième partie présente et critique les évaluations du taux de change d'équilibre du yuan selon différentes méthodes. La troisième développe une maquette où le taux de change d'un pays en développement est volontairement fixé à un bas niveau pour permettre une croissance vigoureuse, de sorte que sous-évalué du point de vue des critères usuels, il est optimal du point de vue de la stratégie de croissance ; enfin, la quatrième partie montre la difficulté du choix d'un régime de change pour la Chine.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre," Post-Print hal-01071969, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01071969
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01071969
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2007. "On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time - Consistent Economic Policies," Sciences Po publications 2007-08, Sciences Po.
    2. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2009. "La globalisation financière en crise," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 13-73.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6125 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4777 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    7. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and World Imbalances: a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Post-Print halshs-00484808, HAL.
    8. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri, Enero.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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