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The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration

  • Yin-wong Cheung

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Menzie D. Chinn

    (University of Wisconsin, Madison and NBER)

  • Eiji Fujii

    (University of Tsukuba)

The debate on renminbi (RMB) revaluation has not subsided, despite the policy change announced by the Chinese authorities in July 2005. In this chapter, we show that the evidence of RMB undervaluation may not be as strong as it appears. Specifically, depending on the method used, the evidence ranges from slight overvaluation to undervaluation. Even in the case of undervaluation, the results are not significant in the statistical sense. We also note that China is playing an important economic role in Asia and has established a complex production and trade network with its neighboring economies, which complicates the calculation of the equilibrium exchange rate. Thus, a change in Chinese exchange rate policy in response to demands from foreign countries and short-run considerations may have undesirable effects on the economies of China and the Asian region.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 182006.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:182006
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