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Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks

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  • Yin†Wong Cheung
  • Menzie Chinn
  • Xin Nong

Abstract

We investigate the robustness of the Penn effect—the finding that the price level is higher in countries with a higher per capita income—over different samples, measures, and specifications. Testing for the Penn effect has been hampered by the imprecision of the price measures, so that use of different versions of the data set can lead to substantially different results. We find that the price level†income elasticity is fairly consistently estimated across data sets. However, there is some evidence that the relationship is non†linear. For developed economies, the quadratic term implies an inverted U†shaped relationship. Developing economies, on the other hand, display a U†shaped relationship. Estimates of misalignment differ, depending on the choice of specification and data sets. It appears that the Renminbi (RMB) was fairly valued by 2011. In contrast, the RMB's value was undervalued in 2005, and overvalued in 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin†Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xin Nong, 2017. "Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 222-242, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:3:p:222-242
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12113
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    2. Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie, 2021. "MULTIPRIL, a new database on multilateral price levels and currency misalignments," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 94-117.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2020. "A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang, 2020. "A Jackknife Model Averaging Analysis of RMB Misalignment Estimates," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-45, June.
    5. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2022. "RMB misalignment: What does a meta‐analysis tell us?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1038-1086, September.
    6. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    7. Mr. Pau Rabanal & Luciana Juvenal & Mai Dao & Gustavo Adler & Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron & Jair Rodriguez & Ms. Nan Li & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Signe Krogstrup & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia & Callum Jo, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Almås, Ingvild & Grewal, Mandeep & Hvide, Marielle & Ugurlu, Serhat, 2017. "The PPP approach revisited: A study of RMB valuation against the USD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 18-38.
    9. Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron & Mr. Mauricio Vargas & Rui Mano & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2019. "The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2019/192, International Monetary Fund.

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    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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