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Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks

Author

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  • Yin†Wong Cheung
  • Menzie Chinn
  • Xin Nong

Abstract

We investigate the robustness of the Penn effect—the finding that the price level is higher in countries with a higher per capita income—over different samples, measures, and specifications. Testing for the Penn effect has been hampered by the imprecision of the price measures, so that use of different versions of the data set can lead to substantially different results. We find that the price level†income elasticity is fairly consistently estimated across data sets. However, there is some evidence that the relationship is non†linear. For developed economies, the quadratic term implies an inverted U†shaped relationship. Developing economies, on the other hand, display a U†shaped relationship. Estimates of misalignment differ, depending on the choice of specification and data sets. It appears that the Renminbi (RMB) was fairly valued by 2011. In contrast, the RMB's value was undervalued in 2005, and overvalued in 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin†Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xin Nong, 2017. "Estimating currency misalignment using the Penn effect: It is not as simple as it looks," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 222-242, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:3:p:222-242
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12113
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    Cited by:

    1. Kong, Dongmin & Shi, Zheng & Xiong, Mengxu, 2024. "Currency overvaluation and export product quality: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Jaromír Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2024. "Exchange rate misalignments, growth, and institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1705-1799, October.
    3. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2022. "RMB misalignment: What does a meta‐analysis tell us?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1038-1086, September.
    4. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon, 2021. "MULTIPRIL, a New Database on Multilateral Price Levels and Currency Misalignments," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 94-117.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    6. Almås, Ingvild & Grewal, Mandeep & Hvide, Marielle & Ugurlu, Serhat, 2017. "The PPP approach revisited: A study of RMB valuation against the USD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 18-38.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang, 2020. "A Jackknife Model Averaging Analysis of RMB Misalignment Estimates," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-45, June.
    8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    9. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    10. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Signe Krogstrup & Gustavo Adler & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mai Dao & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Luciana Juvenal & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Cyril Rebillard & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia &, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rui Mano & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Mauricio Vargas, 2019. "The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2019/192, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2020. "A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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