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Appreciating The Renminbi

  • Rod Tyers

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

  • Ying Zhang

    (SCollege of Business and Economics, Australian National University)

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with an underlying real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, which sees growth as stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity and associated rises in wages and non-traded prices. Yet, despite extraordinary growth after the mid-1990s China’s real exchange rate showed no tendency to appreciate until after 2004. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the economy and show that, during this period, trade reforms and a rising national saving rate were offsetting forces in the presence of elastic labour supply. We then examine the possible determinants of the striking transition to real appreciation thereafter, noting mounting evidence that an improved rural terms of trade has tightened China’s labour market. We show that, should the Chinese government bow to international pressure by appreciating the renminbi either via an extraordinary monetary contraction or via export disincentives the consequences would be harmful for both Chinese and global interests.

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File URL: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1082546/10-13_Appreciating_the_Renminbi.pdf
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Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 10-13.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:10-13
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  1. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M., 2006. "Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2041-2066, November.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1918, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2007. "China’s Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-479, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  4. N/A, 2004. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 8-36, July.
  5. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2015. "The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," NBER Working Papers 11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mario Crucini & Chris Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, . "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," GSIA Working Papers 227, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  8. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
  10. William R. Cline, 2005. "The Case for a New Plaza Agreement," Policy Briefs PB05-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  12. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  13. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008. "China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, 02.
  14. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Jaewoo, 2007. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5r95t1xf, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  15. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  16. Eswar Prasad & Qing Wang & Thomas Rumbaugh, 2005. "Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/1, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Robert W. Fogel, 2006. "Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives," NBER Working Papers 12122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Cai Fang & Wang Dewen, 2005. "Demographic transition: implications for growth," Labor and Demography 0512001, EconWPA.
  19. Mohsin S. Khan & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2004. "Real Exchange Rates In Developing Countries; Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Working Papers 04/188, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  21. Tung, Chen-Yuan & Baker, Sam, 2004. "RMB revaluation will serve China's self-interest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 331-335.
  22. Carsten A Holz, 2005. "New Capital Estimates for China," Macroeconomics 0512001, EconWPA.
  23. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  24. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
  25. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Can the Balassa-Samuelson theory explain long-run real exchange rate movements in OECD countries?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 519-530.
  26. Tyers, Rod & Golley, Jane, 2008. "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 547-574.
  27. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  28. Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies; How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund.
  29. repec:gdm:wpaper:1106 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
  31. N/A, 2004. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 187(1), pages 8-35, January.
  32. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
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