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Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

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  • STEVEN PENNINGS
  • ROD TYERS

Abstract

The late 1990s saw a US IT investment boom, large capital flows into the USA and an appreciation of the US$. At the time, this appeared to be driven by expectations of continued IT‐related knowledge spillover externalities and associated productivity and profit growth. Using a two‐region dynamic general equilibrium model with externalities, we find a once‐off productivity shock leads to capital inflow and a real appreciation only in the short term. In the long term, capital flows stabilise and the real exchange rate depreciates. For a single shock to trigger long‐term growth in capital flows requires unrealistically large externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2008. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(s1), pages 141-158, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:84:y:2008:i:s1:p:s141-s158
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00490.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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