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Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?

  • Martin Neil Baily
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    There was an acceleration of U.S. productivity after 1995. Investment in information technology hardware and software contributed importantly to this, but was not its sole cause. In part, heavy IT investment, perhaps overinvestment, was the result of the booming economy and cheap capital. Besides IT, the expansion of productive firms boosted productivity, together with the competitive pressure this put on other firms to innovate and improve. Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in 2001, and the likely trend for the future is in the range of 2.2 to 2.7 percent a year. The economy should get a second wind.

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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/0895330027184
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    Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
    Pages: 3-22

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    Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:16:y:2002:i:2:p:3-22
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0895330027184
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    1. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    2. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: what do the industry data say?," Staff Reports 115, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 7180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy," Working Paper Series WP01-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. No authors listed, 2001. "New Economy," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 27(1), pages 1-9.
    7. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
    8. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 211-265.
    9. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    10. Ho, Mun & Jorgenson, Dale & Stiroh, Kevin, 2002. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," Discussion Papers dp-02-42, Resources For the Future.
    11. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of the new economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 201-268.
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