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Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?

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  • Martin Neil Baily

Abstract

There was an acceleration of U.S. productivity after 1995. Investment in information technology hardware and software contributed importantly to this, but was not its sole cause. In part, heavy IT investment, perhaps overinvestment, was the result of the booming economy and cheap capital. Besides IT, the expansion of productive firms boosted productivity, together with the competitive pressure this put on other firms to innovate and improve. Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in 2001, and the likely trend for the future is in the range of 2.2 to 2.7 percent a year. The economy should get a second wind.

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  • Martin Neil Baily, 2002. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 3-22, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:16:y:2002:i:2:p:3-22
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0895330027184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence," Chapters, in: Dennis W. Jansen (ed.), The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    2. Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2004. "Will the U.S. productivity resurgence continue?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
    3. Matthes, Jürgen, 2002. "New Economy im Schatten der amerikanischen Konjunkturschwäche," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 16-23.
    4. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    5. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.
    6. Mann, Catherina L., 2003. "A fizetési mérleg hiánya és a hiány fenntarthatósága az Egyesült Államokban [Perspectives on the US current account deficit and sustainability]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 891-910.
    7. Centre for the Study of Living Standards, 2002. "Raising Canadian Living Standards: A Framework for Discussion," CSLS Research Reports 02td, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    8. Atanas Leonidov, 2003. "“The New Economy”," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-33.
    9. Andrew Sharpe, 2002. "Raising Canadian Living Standards: A Framework for Analysis," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 5, pages 23-40, Fall.
    10. Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2008. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(s1), pages 141-158, September.
    11. Argandoña, Antonio, 2002. "Ethical challenges of the new economy: An agenda of issues," IESE Research Papers D/463, IESE Business School.
    12. Francesco Venturini, 2005. "How Much Does IT Consumption Matter for Growth? Evidence from National Accounts," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(1), pages 57-110, January-F.
    13. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Jihad Dagher, 2018. "Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/008, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Hempell, Thomas, 2003. "Do Computers Call for Training? Firm-level Evidence on Complementarities Between ICT and Human Capital Investments," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-20, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Marianna Belloc & Paolo Guerrieri, 2015. "Impact of ICT diffusion and adoption on sectoral industrial performance: evidence from a panel of European countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(1), pages 67-84, April.
    17. Bart van Ark & Robert Inklaar & Robert H. McGuckin, 2003. "The Contribution of ICT-Producing and ICT-Using Industries to Productivity Growth: A Comparison of Canada, Europe and the United States," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 6, pages 56-63, Spring.
    18. Szalavetz, Andrea, 2007. "Műszaki fejlődés és tőkeintenzitás [Technological progress and capital intensity]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 184-198.
    19. Székely-Doby, András, 2006. "Vernon és a számítógép. Az információs technológiai forradalom és a termékciklus-hipotézis összefüggései [Vernon and the computer. Connections between the information technology revolution and the ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 812-826.

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