China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle
International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth is due to relative tradable productivity gains which cause rising relative non-traded prices. The puzzle is that, while evidence on China’s productivity and prices supports this hypothesis, its real exchange rate showed no tendency to appreciate during 1990-2006. Resolution requires allowance for failures of the law of one price for traded goods, which expands the array of determinants to include labour supply growth and demand switches due to changes in investment interest premia, saving rates and trade distortions. The sensitivity of China’s real exchange rate to these determinants is reviewed with the results confirming that financial outflows have been prominent depreciating forces since 1997. These, along with WTO accession trade reforms, have more than offset the Balassa-Samuelson productivity effects.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mario J. Crucini & Chris I. Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, 2001.
"Understanding European Real Exchange Rates,"
Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers
0120, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Alan M. Taylor & Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005.
"Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle,"
511, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M., 2006. "Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2041-2066, November.
- Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle," Working Paper Series 2004-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 10569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bergin, Paul R & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M., 2004. "Productivity, Tradability and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
- Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008.
"China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis,"
Pacific Economic Review,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, 02.
- Rod Tyers & Yongxiang Bu & Ian Bain, 2006. "China’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-466, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007.
"China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate,"
DEGIT Conference Papers
c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Carsten A Holz, 2005.
"New Capital Estimates for China,"
- Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies; How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2015.
"The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
15-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2007. "The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
- repec:gdm:wpaper:1106 is not listed on IDEAS
- Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Can the Balassa-Samuelson theory explain long-run real exchange rate movements in OECD countries?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 519-530.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jong-Eun Lee)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.