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American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance

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  • Rod Tyers
  • Iain Bain

Abstract

With exports almost half of its GDP and most of these directed to Europe and North America, negative financial shocks in those regions might be expected to retard China’s growth. Yet mitigating factors include the temporary flight of North American and European savings into Chinese investment and some associated real exchange rate realignments. These issues are explored using a dynamic model of the global economy. A rise in American and European financial intermediation costs is shown to retard neither China’s GDP nor its import growth in the short run. Should the Chinese government act to prevent the effects of the investment surge, through tighter inward capital controls or increased reserve accumulation, the associated losses would be compensated by a trade advantage since its real exchange rate would appreciate less against North America than those of other trading partners. The results therefore suggest that, so long as the financial shocks are restricted to North America and Western Europe, China’s growth and the imports on which its trading partners rely are unlikely to be significantly hindered.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2008-08
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-02/8_tyers_bain_2008.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    2. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107011694, October.
    3. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 265-297, February.
    4. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    5. Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2008. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(s1), pages 141-158, September.
    6. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China'S Exchange Rate Appreciation In The Light Of The Earlier Japanese Experience," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 287-298, October.
    8. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008. "China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers, 2008. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Rod Tyers, 2012. "The Rise and Robustness of Economic Freedom in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Demographic Dividends, Dependencies, and Economic Growth in China and India," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, Fall.
    4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 517-536, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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