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Fundamentals at Odds? The US Current Account Deficit and The Dollar

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  • Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

Abstract

In mid-2008, the real effective exchange rate of the dollar was close to its minimum level for the past 4 decades. At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and current account deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, would contribute to a further accumulation of U.S. external liabilities. The paper discusses the tension between these two aspects of the dollar assessment, and what factors can help reconcile them. It focuses in particular on the terms of trade, adjustment lags, and measurement issues related to both the real effective exchange rate and the current account balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2008. "Fundamentals at Odds? The US Current Account Deficit and The Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 7046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; real exchange rate; terms of trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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