IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamics of Uncertainty or the Uncertainty of Dynamics: Stochastic J-Curves


  • Marquez, Jaime


That the U.S. trade account will improve in response to a depreciation is not generally in doubt; the key questions are by how much and by when. Addressing these questions involves studying the distribution of trade-account responses to a depreciation. Given a depreciation of the dollar, the paper generates this distribution by simulating a trade model with random drawings of both innovations and elasticity estimates. Unlike previous studies, this analysis explains trade on a bilateral basis and uses the Full Information Maximum Likelihood estimator for parameter estimation. According to the findings, the dispersion of trade-account responses grows over time and is directly related to the magnitude of the depreciation. Furthermore, the probability of a slow adjustment of the trade account is relatively high and the 95 percent confidence intervals are too wide to be useful for policies that target a given trade-account path. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Marquez, Jaime, 1991. "The Dynamics of Uncertainty or the Uncertainty of Dynamics: Stochastic J-Curves," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 125-133, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:73:y:1991:i:1:p:125-33

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Feldstein, Martin & Poterba, James, 1984. "Unemployment insurance and reservation wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 141-167.
    2. Elazar Berkovitch, 1985. "Reputation Effect in Equilibrium Search and Bargaining- A Stigma Theory of Unemployment Duration," Discussion Papers 668, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    3. J. J. McCall, 1970. "Economics of Information and Job Search," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 113-126.
    4. Ehrenberg, Ronald G & Oaxaca, Ronald L, 1976. "Unemployment Insurance, Duration of Unemployment, and Subsequent Wage Gain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 754-766, December.
    5. Solon, Gary R, 1985. "Work Incentive Effects of Taxing Unemployment Benefits," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 295-306, March.
    6. Janice Fanning Madden, 1988. "The Distribution of Economic Losses among Displaced Workers: Measurement Methods Matter," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(1), pages 93-107.
    7. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
    8. Louis Jacobson, 1984. "A Tale of Employment Decline in Two Cities: How Bad Was the Worst of Times?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 37(4), pages 557-569, July.
    9. Whipple, David, 1973. "A Generalized Theory of Job Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, Sept.-Oct.
    10. S. C. Salop, 1973. "Systematic Job Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 191-201.
    11. John T. Warner & J. Carl Poindexter & Robert M. Fearn, 1980. "Employer-Employee Interaction and the Duration of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(2), pages 211-233.
    12. William F. Barnes, 1975. "Job Search Models, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Asking Wage: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 10(2), pages 230240.
    13. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-862, December.
    14. John M. Barron & Wesley Mellow, 1979. "Search Effort in the Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 389-404.
    15. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    16. Jerry Hausman & Aaron Han, 1986. "Semiparametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Working papers 450, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    17. Gronau, Reuben, 1971. "Information and Frictional Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 290-301, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Stahn Kerstin, 2007. "Has the Export Pricing Behaviour of German Enterprises Changed?: Empirical Evidence from German Sectoral Export Prices," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(3), pages 295-329, June.
    2. Calista Cheung & Davide Furceri & Elena Rusticelli, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 923-944, November.
    3. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," Discussion Papers 08-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Chang Byoung-Ky, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an International Duopoly model with Brand Loyalty," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 41-59.
    5. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Chang, Byoung-Ky, 1999. "Three essays on imperfect competition and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of multiple exchange rates," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013554, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Webber, A., 1999. "Dynamic and Long Run Responses of Import Prices to the Exchange Rate in the Asia-Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:73:y:1991:i:1:p:125-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kristin Waites). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.