IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments

  • Yavuz Arslan
  • Mustafa Kilinc
  • M. Ibrahim Turhan

We analyze the global imbalances and the required adjustments for rebalancing in current accounts and real exchange rates. We set up a two-country two-sector model for the US-China with two asymmetries. First, we assume that the size of China initially is one third of the US but its size becomes half of the US in the next ten years consistent with the fast growth expectations in China. Secondly, we assume that China initially runs a net export surplus against the US. Then we quantitatively study two adjustment scenarios. First scenario, called Slow Adjustment, assumes that in the process of growth, Chinese demand composition moves more towards domestic non-tradable sector. In this case, Chinese real exchange rate appreciates gradually and net export surplus also decreases slowly. Second scenario, called Quick Adjustment, assumes that in addition to the higher non-tradable share in output, net export surplus against US goes to zero quickly in ?ve years. In this case, net export adjustment happens quickly and real exchange rates in China also appreciate faster and at a higher rate than Slow Adjustment case. Even though, global imbalances are eliminated faster in the Quick Adjustment case, high real appreciation in China hurts importers in the US. A comparison in terms of output shows that Slow Adjustments is preferred for both countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/PUBLICATIONS/Research/Working+Paperss/2011/11-27
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1127.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1127
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara

Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fracasso, Andrea & Schiavo, Stefano, 2009. "Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 601-619, September.
  2. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
  3. Martin, Feldstein, 2011. "The role of currency realignments in eliminating the US and China current account imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 731-736, September.
  4. Caballero, Ricardo J & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7xc0g8mm, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  5. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Working Paper Series 2006-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2007. "Global imbalances and exchange rate adjustment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 705-709.
  7. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 0606, CEPREMAP.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  9. Jaewoo Lee & Fabio Ghironi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 09/275, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 716-733, 09.
  12. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the U.S. External Imbalance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 209-225, December.
  13. Paul Krugman, 2007. "Will there be a dollar crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 435-467, 07.
  14. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferreti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," Trinity Economics Papers tep16, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  15. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
  17. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Working Paper Series 1040, European Central Bank.
  18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  19. Mussa, Michael, 2007. "The dollar and the current account deficit: How much should we worry?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 691-696.
  20. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Qiao, Hong, 2007. "Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 765-782.
  22. Salvatore, Dominick, 2007. "U.S. trade deficits, structural imbalances, and global monetary stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 697-704.
  23. Miranda Xafa, 2007. "Global Imbalances and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 07/111, International Monetary Fund.
  24. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Devaluing the dollar: A critical analysis of William Cline's case for a New Plaza Agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 683-694, September.
  25. Faruqee, Hamid & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity? A scenario analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2651-2689, August.
  26. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 211-288.
  27. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
  29. Bini Smaghi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Global imbalances and monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 711-727.
  30. Eichengreen, Barry, 2006. "Global imbalances: The new economy, the dark matter, the savvy investor, and the standard analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 645-652, September.
  31. Yavuz Arslan & Gursu Keles & Mustafa Kilinc, 2012. "Trend Shocks, Risk Sharing and Cross-Country Portfolio Holdings," Working Papers 1205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  32. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2007. "The transfer problem in reducing the U.S. current account deficit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 669-675.
  33. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
  35. Lukas Vogel, 2010. "China's External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 430, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  36. Xafa, Miranda, 2007. "Global imbalances and financial stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 783-796.
  37. Calvo, Guillermo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2006. "The resolution of global imbalances: Soft landing in the North, sudden stop in emerging markets?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 605-613, September.
  38. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Martin S. Feldstein, 2011. "The Role of Currency Realignments in Eliminating the US and China Current Account Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "China and its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilizing Influence?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3449, CESifo Group Munich.
  41. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Gradual Correction or Abrupt Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 12154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  43. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 505-521.
  44. Damiano Sandri & Pau Rabanal & Isabelle Mejean, 2011. "Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/46, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)

or (Ilker Cakar)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.