IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed007/921.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unbalanced Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Kortum

    (University of Chicago)

  • Jonathan Eaton

    (New York University)

  • Robert Dekle

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and University of Southern California)

Abstract

We incorporate trade imbalances into a quantitative model of bilateral trade in manufactures, dividing the world into forty "countries." We calculate the pattern of bilateral trade and relative factor costs in a counterfactual world with all current accounts balancing. Our results indicate that closing the current accounts requires only modest changes in relative factor costs across countries. The extent of nontradability implied by the parameter estimates means that the implied changes in real factor returns are negligible. The geographic barriers implied by the current pattern of trade are sufficiently asymmetric that large bilateral deficits remain even after current accounts balance. The U.S. manufacturing trade deficit with China falls to only $65 billion from its current level of $167 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Kortum & Jonathan Eaton & Robert Dekle, 2007. "Unbalanced Trade," 2007 Meeting Papers 921, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:921
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2007/paper_921.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    4. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    5. Michael E. Waugh, 2010. "International Trade and Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2093-2124, December.
    6. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
    7. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza & Greg Hannsgen, 2006. "Can Global Imbalances Continue?: Policies for the U.S. Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_nov_06, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    2. Kristian Behrens & Giordano Mion & Yasusada Murata & Jens Südekum, 2014. "Trade, Wages, And Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1305-1348, November.
    3. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    4. Redding, Stephen J., 2016. "Goods trade, factor mobility and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 148-167.
    5. Giri, Rahul, 2012. "Local costs of distribution, international trade costs and micro evidence on the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 82-100.
    6. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    7. Jacks, David S. & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 221-237.
    8. Behrens, Kristian & Mion, Giordano & Murata, Yasusada & Suedekum, Jens, 2017. "Spatial frictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 40-70.
    9. Takumi Naito, 2016. "Aid for Trade and Global Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1178-1201, November.
    10. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    11. Patrizio Pagano & Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Finicelli, 2008. "Trade-revealed TFP," 2008 Meeting Papers 717, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. E. M. Bosker & Bastian Westbrock, 2014. "A theory of trade in a global production network," Working Papers 14-14, Utrecht School of Economics.
    13. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    14. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    15. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    16. Melitz, Marc J. & Redding, Stephen J., 2014. "Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 1-54, Elsevier.
    17. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "How Important is Technology? A Counterfactual Analysis," MPRA Paper 16838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    19. Ahmad Lashkaripour & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2017. "National Differentiation and Industry-Wide Scale Effects," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    20. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed007:921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.