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Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications

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  • ROD TYERS

Abstract

Despite Japan’s prominence in global finance and trade through the 1980s its global role has appeared to diminish with its recent stagnation and the rise of China. This paper reviews the claimed sources of Japan’s stagnation, including productivity and labour slowdowns, monetary policy in the aftermath of the Plaza Accord and the surge in China’s growth. Their independent effects are quantified using a multi-region global dynamic model. The productivity slowdown emerges strongest though its exogeneity is questioned. The resulting losses are shown to have been severe for the Japanese but mild in other regions, disguised by the rise of China.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/10.1111/ecor.2012.88.issue-283
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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
Issue (Month): 283 (December)
Pages: 517-536

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:88:y:2012:i:283:p:517-536
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  1. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2011. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," Studies in Economics 1115, School of Economics, University of Kent.
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  8. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2000. "The Morning After: Explaining The Slowdown In Japanese Growth In The 1990s," CEPR Discussion Papers 2436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December.
  14. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages S13-S23, 09.
  15. C. Randall Henning, 2008. "Accountability and Oversight of US Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4198, December.
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  17. Peter E Robertson & Jessica Y Xu, 2010. "In China's Wake: Has Asia Gained From China's Growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  18. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change And Economic Performance In China And India," CAMA Working Papers 2011-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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Cited by:

  1. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," CAMA Working Papers 2014-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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