The US economy from 1992 to 1998: results from a detailed CGE model
This paper describes historical and decomposition simulations undertaken for 1992 to 1998 with a 500-sector CGE model of the US. The historical simulation provides estimates of movements in unobservable technology and preference variables. The decomposition simulation explains developments in the US economy in terms of movements in these variables and in observable exogenous variables such as tariffs. Both simulations produce many results. Here we use decomposition results to show that rapid growth in US international trade is explained mainly by technology changes that reduced costs in export-oriented industries and increased inputs of commodities are heavily imported.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1) 2004, pages S13-S23, 09.|
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- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000.
"Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 1999. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-73, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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