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The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model

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  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

USAGE is a 500 industry dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the US economy being developed at Monash University in collaboration with the US International Trade Commission. In common with the MONASH model of Australia, USAGE is designed for four modes of analysis: Historical, where we estimate changes in technology and consumer preferences; Decomposition, where we explain periods of economic history in terms of driving factors such as changes in technology and consumer preferences; Forecast, where we derive basecase forecasts for industries, occupations and regions that are consistent with trends from historical simulations and with available expert opinions; and Policy, where we derive deviations from basecase forecast paths caused by assumed policies. This paper reports our first set of historical and decomposition results. The historical results quantify several aspects of technical change in US industries for the period 1992 to 1998 including: intermediate-input-saving technical change; primary-factor-saving technical change; labor-capital bias in technical change; and import- domestic bias in technical change. The historical results also quantify shifts in consumer preferences between commodities. The decomposition results are applied in illustrative analyses of growth in US international trade between 1992 and 1998 and of growth in the US steel industry for this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp016, IIIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp016
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    1. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R & Powell, Alan A, 1996. "Features of Multiregional and Intertemporal AGE Modelling with GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 331-353, November.
    2. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    3. Pearson, K. R., 1988. "Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October.
    4. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eddy Bekkers & Robert B. Koopman, 2022. "Simulating the trade effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic: Scenario analysis based on quantitative trade modelling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 445-467, February.
    2. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Modeling the Global Economy – Forward-Looking Scenarios for Agriculture," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 933-994, Elsevier.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 13-23, September.
    4. Laurent Cretegny, 2005. "Analyzing Economic Structural Change in a General Equilibrium Framework: The case of Switzerland from 1990 to 2001," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-155, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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