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A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows

  • Martina Brockmeier
  • Janine Pelikan
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    This paper analyses the economic effects of different magnitudes of tariff cuts, different tariff cutting formulas, the implications of tariff capping as well as different numbers and width of tariff bands in the market access pillar of the Doha Round agricultural negotiations. The simulations are conducted with an extended version of the GTAP model and an extended version of the GTAP data base (6.0) including bound and applied rates. The results reveal that the EU-27 experiences a negative change of its trade balance in the highly protected beef and sugar sectors. The relative increase of EU beef and sugar imports is mainly evoked by the magnitude of tariff cuts and, to a lesser extent, by the kind of formula used to implement the tariff cuts. In contrast, the EU trade balance for milk and cereals is hardly influenced by different options to cut tariffs. Here, the negative change of the trade balance is mainly driven by the elimination of export subsidies. The results also indicate a relative increase of EU exports for other meat, if tariff cuts are high enough to open third countries' markets to the EU.

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    File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/documents/discussion/pdfs/iiisdp125.pdf
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    Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp125.

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    Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp125
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    1. Gibson, Paul R. & Wainio, John & Whitley, Daniel B. & Bohman, Mary, 2001. "Profiles Of Tariffs In Global Agricultural Markets," Agricultural Economics Reports 34055, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center.
    3. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 1999. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-73, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. Bureau Jean-Christophe & Salvatici Luca, 2004. "WTO Negotiations on Market Access in Agriculture: a Comparison of Alternative Tariff Cut Proposals for the EU and the US," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, March.
    5. van Tongeren, Frank W. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "China'S Food Economy In The Early 21st Century; Development Of China'S Food Economy And Its Impact On Global Trade And On The Eu," Report Series 29093, Agricultural Economics Research Institute.
    6. Peter Walkenhorst & Nora Dihel, 2003. "Tariff Bindings, Unused Protection and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(1), pages 231-249.
    7. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank.
    8. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    9. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2004. "A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database," Working Papers 2004-22, CEPII research center.
    10. Francois, Joseph & Martin, Will, 2003. "Formula Approaches for Market Access Negotiations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 1994. "Trade in manufactures: the outcome of the Uruguay Round and developing country interesth," Textos para discussão 331, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    12. Jales, Mario & Josling, Timothy E. & Nassar, Andre Meloni & Tutwiler, M. Ann, 2005. "Market Access," Trade Policy Issues Papers 14570, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
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