A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows
This paper analyses the economic effects of different magnitudes of tariff cuts, different tariff cutting formulas, the implications of tariff capping as well as different numbers and width of tariff bands in the market access pillar of the Doha Round agricultural negotiations. The simulations are conducted with an extended version of the GTAP model and an extended version of the GTAP data base (6.0) including bound and applied rates. The results reveal that the EU-27 experiences a negative change of its trade balance in the highly protected beef and sugar sectors. The relative increase of EU beef and sugar imports is mainly evoked by the magnitude of tariff cuts and, to a lesser extent, by the kind of formula used to implement the tariff cuts. In contrast, the EU trade balance for milk and cereals is hardly influenced by different options to cut tariffs. Here, the negative change of the trade balance is mainly driven by the elimination of export subsidies. The results also indicate a relative increase of EU exports for other meat, if tariff cuts are high enough to open third countries' markets to the EU.
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