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A Meta-Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda

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  • Sebastian Hess
  • Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel

Abstract

Model-based simulation of welfare effects is commonly used to make a case for trade liberalisation and to inform participants and stakeholders in trade negotiations. However, the simulated welfare effects of trade liberalisation vary greatly, even across studies that model similar liberalisation scenarios. This undermines confidence in the reliability of model-based simulations. A meta-analysis of over 100 studies that model WTO Doha Development Agenda trade negotiation outcomes is employed to identify characteristics of models, databases and liberalisation experiments that influence simulated welfare effects. Meta-regressions produce plausible results and explain a significant proportion of the variation in simulated welfare effects in a representative sample of Doha Development Agenda trade liberalisation studies. Results also reveal that many quantitative trade policy simulation studies fail to adequately document the assumptions and data on which they are based. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Hess & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2008. "A Meta-Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 804-840, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:6:p:804-840
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
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    4. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2006. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda," Working Papers 2006-10, CEPII research center.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carolin Kouyaté & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2016. "Distance and Border Effects on Price Transmission: A Meta-analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 255-271, June.
    2. Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: Explaining differences in the Estimated Benefited of the Doha Developing Agenda," 54th Annual Conference, Goettingen, Germany, September 17-19, 2014 187311, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Johanna Choumert & Pascale Combes Motel & Charlain Guegang, 2017. "The Biofuel-Development Nexus: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2017.04, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    4. Ogundari, Kolawole, 2009. "A Meta-Analysis Of Technical Efficiency In Nigerian Agriculture," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50327, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.
    6. Alan Matthews, 2014. "Doha negotiations on agriculture and future of the WTO multilateral Trade System," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    7. James Scott, 2012. "Squeezing the state: tariff revenue, state capacity and the WTO’s Doha Round," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16912, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
    8. Honkatukia, Juha & Kaitila, Ville & Kotilainen, Markku & Niemi, Janne, 2012. "Global trade and climate policy scenarios – Impact on Finland," Working Papers 37, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    9. James Scott & Rorden Wilkinson, 2012. "Changing of the guard: expert knowledge and ‘common sense’ in the Doha Development Agenda," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16612, BWPI, The University of Manchester.

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