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A Meta‐Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda

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  • Sebastian Hess
  • Stephan Von Cramon‐Taubadel

Abstract

Model‐based simulation of welfare effects is commonly used to make a case for trade liberalisation and to inform participants and stakeholders in trade negotiations. However, the simulated welfare effects of trade liberalisation vary greatly, even across studies that model similar liberalisation scenarios. This undermines confidence in the reliability of model‐based simulations. A meta‐analysis of over 100 studies that model WTO Doha Development Agenda trade negotiation outcomes is employed to identify characteristics of models, databases and liberalisation experiments that influence simulated welfare effects. Meta‐regressions produce plausible results and explain a significant proportion of the variation in simulated welfare effects in a representative sample of Doha Development Agenda trade liberalisation studies. Results also reveal that many quantitative trade policy simulation studies fail to adequately document the assumptions and data on which they are based.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Hess & Stephan Von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2008. "A Meta‐Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 804-840, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:6:p:804-840
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01103.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Matthews, 2014. "Doha negotiations on agriculture and future of the WTO multilateral Trade System," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    2. Carolin Kouyaté & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2016. "Distance and Border Effects on Price Transmission: A Meta-analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 255-271, June.
    3. Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: Explaining differences in the Estimated Benefited of the Doha Developing Agenda," 54th Annual Conference, Goettingen, Germany, September 17-19, 2014 187311, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. James Scott, 2012. "Squeezing the state: tariff revenue, state capacity and the WTO’s Doha Round," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 16912, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    5. Johanna Choumert & Pascale Combes Motel & Charlain Guegang Djimeli, 2017. "The biofuel-development nexus: A meta-analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01512678, HAL.
    6. Anderson, Edward, 2020. "The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1208-1227.
    7. Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: Explaining differences in the Estimated Benefited of the Doha Developing Agenda," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 187311, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    8. Choumert Nkolo, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Guegang Djimeli, Charlain, 2018. "Income-generating Effects of Biofuel Policies: A Meta-analysis of the CGE Literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 230-242.
    9. Ogundari, Kolawole, 2009. "A Meta-Analysis Of Technical Efficiency In Nigerian Agriculture," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50327, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Justice G. Djokoto & Ferguson K. Gidiglo & Francis Y. Srofenyoh & Kofi Aaron A-O. Agyei-Henaku & Akua A. Afrane Arthur & Charlotte Badu-Prah & John Fry, 2020. "Sectoral and spatio-temporal differentiation in technical efficiency: A meta-regression," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1773659-177, January.
    11. Honkatukia, Juha & Kaitila, Ville & Kotilainen, Markku & Niemi, Janne, 2012. "Global trade and climate policy scenarios – Impact on Finland," Working Papers 37, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Justice G. Djokoto & Korbla F. Gidiglo, 2016. "Technical Efficiency in Agribusiness: A Meta‐Analysis on Ghana," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 397-415, July.
    13. Simon Schropp & Marinos Tsigas, 2023. "Designing ‘optimal’ sanctions on Russian imports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 498-531, March.
    14. James Scott & Rorden Wilkinson, 2012. "Changing of the guard: expert knowledge and ‘common sense’ in the Doha Development Agenda," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 16612, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    15. Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, Stefan, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: explaining differences in the estimated benefits of the Doha Development Agenda," DARE Discussion Papers 1001, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    16. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.

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