Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round
We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94 on the major industrialized and developing countries/regions. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $73.0 billion. The developed countries overall have an estimated welfare gain of $53.8 billion, and the developing countries an estimated welfare increase of $19.2 billion. We have also simulated the effects of assumed 33 percent reductions in trade barriers in the ongoing Doha Development Round. There is an estimated increase in global welfare of $574.0 billion. There is a global welfare decline of $3.1 billion from agricultural liberalization due primarily to the assumed reductions in export subsidies. There are global welfare gains of $163.4 billion from reductions in manufactures tariffs and $413.7 billion from reductions in services barriers. All of the countries/regions covered in the Michigan Model show overall welfare increases, with the largest absolute gains going to the developed countries.
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- J. Michael Finger & Julio J. Nogués, 2002.
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"Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May.
- Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0001, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M., 1999. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Working Papers 453, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1996. "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round Assessments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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