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CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options

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  • Drusilla K. Brown
  • Alan V. Deardorff
  • Robert M. Stern

Abstract

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of: the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94; a prospective new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations; and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $75.1 billion annually, with gains of $12.9 billion for the United States and $15.6 billion for Japan. An assumed reduction of all post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and of all services barriers by 33 percent in a new WTO trade round is estimated to increase world welfare by $613.0 billion, with gains of $177.3 billion for the United States and $123.7 billion for Japan. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, then world welfare would increase by $1.9 trillion, with gains of $537.2 billion (5.9 percent of GNP) for the United States and $374.8 billion (5.8 percent of GNP) for Japan. Elimination of APEC-member country bilateral post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and services barriers is estimated to increase world welfare by $764.4 billion, with gains of $294.7 billion for the United States and $283.1 billion for Japan and losses of $7.0 billion for the European Union/EFTA and $1.0 billion for South Asia. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, and Chile and an ASEAN Plus-3 FTA involving Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some member countries. Depending on the agreement, there may be detrimental welfare effects on some nonmembers. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore cons
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Suggested Citation

  • Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0108, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  • Handle: RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-286, May.
    2. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 31-52.
    4. Brown, Drusilla K. & Deardorff, Alan V. & Stern, Robert M., 1996. "Computational Analysis of the Economic Effects of an East Asian Preferential Trading Bloc," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 37-70, March.
    5. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    6. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 77-104.
    7. Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "NAFTA's Effects: A Preliminary Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 761-775, June.
    8. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chadha, R. & Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 459, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 803-828, June.
    3. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2004. "A different approach to WTO negotiations in services," CPB Discussion Paper 36, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Lucian Cernat & Sam Laird & Alessandro Turrini, 2003. "How Important are Market Access Issues for Developing Countries in the Doha Agenda?," International Trade 0302004, EconWPA.
    5. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "Globalization and Africa: implications for human development," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 213-238, September.
    6. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2012. "CGE modeling of market access in services," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6106, The World Bank.
    7. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2006. "Computational Analysis of the Menu of US-Japan Trade Policies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 805-855, June.
    8. Alexander Schejtman & Julio A. Berdegué, 2006. "El Impacto Social de la Integración Regional en América Latina Rural," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2327, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Alexander Schejtman & Julio A. Berdegué, 2006. "El Impacto Social de la Integración Regional en América Latina Rural," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9125, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2005. "The Suitability Of A Greater China Currency Union," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 83-103, February.
    11. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
    12. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)," Working Papers 514, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    13. Hess, Sebastian, 2005. "An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24713, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. George Norman & Lynne Pepall & Dan Richards, 2001. "Versioning, Brand-Stretching, and the Evolution of e-Commerce Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0114, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1250, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Joseph Stiglitz & Andrew Charlton, 2005. "Un cycle de négociations commerciales pour le développement ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 13(4), pages 17-54.
    17. Drusilla Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert Stern, 2006. "An Analysis of the U.S.-SACU FTA Negotiations," Working Papers 545, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    18. Marcus Noland, 2003. "The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations," Policy Briefs PB03-06, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    19. Timothy A. Wise, "undated". "04-02 "The Paradox of Agricultural Subsidies: Measurement Issues, Agricultural Dumping, and Policy Reform"," GDAE Working Papers 04-02, GDAE, Tufts University.
    20. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    21. Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Issues of US-EU Trade Policy," Economics working papers 2002_03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    22. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "Impacts on NAFTA Members of Multilateral and Regional Trading Arrangements and Initiatives and Harmonization of NAFTA's External Tariffs," Working Papers 471, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    23. Carl Davidson & Steven J. Matusz, 2010. "Our Motivation," Introductory Chapters,in: International Trade with Equilibrium Unemployment Princeton University Press.
    24. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Developing Countries' Stake in the Doha Round," Working Papers 495, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.

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