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Impacts of Trade Reform: Sensitivity of Model Results to Key Assumptions

Author Info

  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    ()

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Kym Anderson

    ()

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Thomas Hertel

    ()

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University)

Abstract

The WTOÂ’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.

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Paper provided by University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies in its series Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers with number 2007-09.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2007-09
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Keywords: Trade policy reform; WTO; agricultural trade; computable general equilibrium.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
  • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
  • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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  1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Distortions to world trade: impacts on agricultural markets and farm incomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3736, The World Bank.
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Clemente Polo & Ferran Sancho, 1994. "An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 480, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Would multilateral trade reform benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3616, The World Bank.
  4. Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
  5. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr & Angelo Gurgel, 2004. "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(3), pages 289-317.
  6. Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521172318 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521351058 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
  10. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "WTOÂ’s Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-06, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  11. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  12. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
  13. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
  14. Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models," Staff Working Papers 0601, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
  15. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Cited by:

  1. James Scott, 2012. "Squeezing the state: tariff revenue, state capacity and the WTO’s Doha Round," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16912, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
  2. Muhammad, Andrew & Seale, James L. & Meade, Birgit & Regmi, Anita, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 184306, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  3. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Tirado-Seco, Pablo & Samson, Réjean, 2012. "Macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005–2025 European Union bioenergy policy using the GTAP model and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1180-1192.
  4. James Scott & Rorden Wilkinson, 2012. "Changing of the guard: expert knowledge and ‘common sense’ in the Doha Development Agenda," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16612, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
  5. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  6. Dorothee Flaig & Harald Grethe & Scott McDonald & Khalid Siddig, 2012. "Intersectoral factor movements: do adjustment costs matter for welfare?," EcoMod2012 4418, EcoMod.
  7. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
  8. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2012. "Estimating effects of price-distorting policies using alternative distortions databases," CEPR Discussion Papers 9083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L. Jr, 2010. "Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries," Technical Bulletins 184310, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  10. McCleery, Robert & DePaolis, Fernando, 2014. "So you want to build a trade model? Available resources and critical choices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 199-207.
  11. Németh, Gabriella & Szabó, László & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2011. "Estimation of Armington elasticities in a CGE economy-energy-environment model for Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1993-1999, July.
  12. Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., Jr., 2010. "Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries," Technical Bulletins 59870, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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