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Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Ernesto Valenzuela
  • Lee Ann Jackson

Abstract

This article provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that if other developing countries—especially in sub-Saharan Africa—were to follow the lead of China, South Africa, and most recently India, adoption of GM cotton varieties could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those early-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed—and reinforce—those from a successful campaign under the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 265-296.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:v:56:y:2008:p:265-296
    DOI: 10.1086/522897
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    1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baffes, John, 2011. "Cotton, biotechnology, and economic development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5896, The World Bank.
    2. Frisvold, George & Reeves, Jeanne, 0. "Genetically Modified Crops: International Trade And Trade Policy Effects," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3.
    3. Antoine Bouët & Guillaume P. Gruère, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
    4. Graham Brookes & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid, 2010. "Production and Price Impact of Biotech Crops, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 10-wp503, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    5. Subramanian, Arjunan & Qaim, Matin, 2009. "Rural Poverty and Employment Effects of Bt Cotton in India," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50555, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(02), May.
    7. Pitoro, Raul & Walker, Thomas S. & Tschirley, David L. & Swinton, Scott M. & Boughton, Duncan & de Marrule, Higino Francisco, 2009. "Can Bt Technology Reduce Poverty Among African Cotton Growers? An Ex Ante Analysis of the Private and Social Profitability of Bt Cotton Seed in Mozambique," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51633, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. repec:laf:wpaper:201002 is not listed on IDEAS

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