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Implementing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using Gempack

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Pearson, Ken

Abstract

In economic simulation, results often hinge crucially on values of key exogenous inputs (the values of the parameters of the model and the shocks applied). Computational burden has, in the past, hindered systematic investigation of the impacts of variations in these key exogenous inputs. In this document, practical methods for conducting systematic sensitivity analysis for any model implemented using the GEMPACK suite of software are documented. The procedures described here are based on GTAP Technical Paper number 2 which sets out the theory behind the Gaussian quadrature methods on which the automated procedure is based. The procedures allow modellers to obtain estimates of the means and standard deviations of any endogenous variables of their model. The model only needs to be solved a relatively modest number of times (usually only 2N times if N exogenous inputs are varying); this is considerably fewer than the number of solves required by Monte Carlo methods. The procedure documented here fully automates solving the model as often as is necessary; once the user sets it up and starts it running, no further intervention is required. The document spells out the assumptions which must be made about the distribution of the exogenous inputs for the methods described to be valid. Five examples of systematic sensitivity computations are presented and the accompanying software allows modellers to work through these examples while reading the document. This should leave readers fully prepared to analyse the sensitivity of results for any model implemented in GEMPACK. Note Added November 2000: The Windows programs RunGTAP and RunGEM now provide much easier ways of carrying out systematic sensitivity calculations than those supplied with this Technical Paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Pearson, Ken, 2000. "Implementing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using Gempack," Technical Papers 28712, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugttp:28712
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28712
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction To Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Via Gaussian Quadrature," Technical Papers 28709, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. DeVuyst, Eric A. & Preckel, Paul V., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
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    2. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2005. "Incorporating commodity stockholding into a general equilibrium model of the global economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 646-664, July.
    4. Arief Yusuf & Budy Resosudarmo, 2015. "On the distributional impact of a carbon tax in developing countries: the case of Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(1), pages 131-156, January.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    6. Nelson B Villoria & Paul V Preckel, 2017. "Gaussian Quadratures vs. Monte Carlo Experiments for Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of Computable General Equilibrium Model Results," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 480-487.
    7. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0.
    8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas W., 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Anderson, Kym, 2004. "Setting the Trade Policy Agenda: What Roles for Economists?," Working Papers 14574, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Ali Mansoor & Bryce Quillin, 2007. "Migration and Remittances : Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6920.
    12. Kym Anderson, 2003. "Measuring Effects of Trade Policy Distortions: How Far Have We Come?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 413-440, April.
    13. Alla A. Golub & Thomas W. Hertel, 2012. "Modeling Land-Use Change Impacts Of Biofuels In The Gtap-Bio Framework," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-30.
    14. Beckman, Jayson & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wallace, 2011. "Validating energy-oriented CGE models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 799-806, September.
    15. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "On the Distributional Effect of Carbon Tax in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200705, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2007.
    16. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    17. Nelson Benjamin Villoria & Elliot Wamboka Mghenyi, 2017. "The Impacts of India's Food Security Policies on South Asian Wheat and Rice Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(3), pages 730-746.
    18. Rae, Allan N. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(3), pages 1-30.

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