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Recent and prospective adoption of genetically modified cotton : a global computable general equilibrium analysis of economic impacts

Author

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Valenzuela, Ernesto
  • Jackson, Lee Ann

Abstract

The authors provide estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. They use the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and model. The results suggest that by following the lead of China and South Africa, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries-especially in Sub-Saharan Africa-could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those first-adopting countries. Furthermore, the estimated gains are shown to exceed those from a successful campaign under the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Agenda to reduce and remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2006. "Recent and prospective adoption of genetically modified cotton : a global computable general equilibrium analysis of economic impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3917, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3917
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    1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
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    14. Matin Qaim & Arjunan Subramanian & Gopal Naik & David Zilberman, 2006. "Adoption of Bt Cotton and Impact Variability: Insights from India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 48-58.
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    Cited by:

    1. Graham Brookes & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid, 2010. "Production and Price Impact of Biotech Crops, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 10-wp503, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Subramanian, Arjunan & Qaim, Matin, 2009. "Rural Poverty and Employment Effects of Bt Cotton in India," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50555, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Amrita Chatterjee & Sanjib Pohit & Arpita Ghose, 2016. "Trade and Distributional Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops in India: A CGE Analysis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 381-407, August.
    5. Antoine Bouët & Guillaume P. Gruère, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
    6. Pitoro, Raul & Walker, Thomas S. & Tschirley, David L. & Swinton, Scott M. & Boughton, Duncan & de Marrule, Higino Francisco, 2009. "Can Bt Technology Reduce Poverty Among African Cotton Growers? An Ex Ante Analysis of the Private and Social Profitability of Bt Cotton Seed in Mozambique," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51633, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Baffes, John, 2011. "Cotton, biotechnology, and economic development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5896, The World Bank.
    8. Frisvold, George & Reeves, Jeanne, 2015. "Genetically Modified Crops: International Trade And Trade Policy Effects," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, April.
    9. Amrita Chatterjee & Arpita Ghose, 2016. "Consumer’s Acceptance towards Genetically Modified Crops and Growth of the Economy: A Theoretical Approach," Working Papers 2016-137, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    10. Antoine Bouet & Guillaume Gruère, 2010. "Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries," Larefi Working Papers 201002, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    11. Jian Zhang & Denise Eby Konan, 2010. "The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 750-767, November.

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    Keywords

    Crops&Crop Management Systems; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Textiles; Apparel&Leather Industry; Livestock&Animal Husbandry;
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