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Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Kym Anderson

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    () (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Lee Ann Jackson

    () (World Trade Organization, Geneva)

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that by following the lead of China, South Africa and most recently India, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries – especially in Sub-Saharan Africa – could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those early-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed – and reinforce – those from a successful campaign under the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2007-07
    as

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    File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/papers/0707.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reimer, Jeff & Hertel, Thomas, 2003. "International Cross Section Estimates of Demand for Use in the GTAP Model," GTAP Working Papers 1190, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jackson, 2005. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 385-410, September.
    3. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
    4. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
    5. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Qaim, Matin, 2003. "Bt Cotton in India: Field Trial Results and Economic Projections," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2115-2127, December.
    7. Pearson, Ken & Channing Arndt, 2000. "Implementing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using GEMPACK," GTAP Technical Papers 474, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baffes, John, 2007. "Distortions to Cotton Sector Incentives in West and Central Africa," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48526, World Bank.
    2. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GMOs; cotton biotechnology; computable general equilibrium modeling; economic welfare; subsidy and tariff reform;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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