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Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility

Author

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  • Valenzuela, Ernesto
  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Keeney, Roman
  • Reimer, Jeff

Abstract

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. However, concerns are sometimes raised about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment. This article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating CGE models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets. We show how patterns in the deviations between model predictions and validation criteria can be used to identify the weak points of a model and guide development of improved specifications with firmer empirical foundations.

Suggested Citation

  • Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:1875
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 32
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    File URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=1875
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    Cited by:

    1. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 1106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    2. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 108-139, April.
    3. Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and Nutrition Vulnerability," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49344, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Input--output linkages and the propagation of domestic productivity shocks: assessing alternative theories with stochastic simulation," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 38-54, March.
    5. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.
    6. Pratt, Stephen & Blake, Adam & Swann, Peter, 2013. "Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 429-439.
    7. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Osakwe, Patrick N., 2006. "Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa," MPRA Paper 1851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ernesto Valenzuela & Kym Anderson & Thomas Hertel, 2008. "Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 395-420, February.
    9. Surabhi Mittal, 2007. "OECD Agricultural Trade Reforms Impact on India's Prices and Producers Welfare," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 195, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    10. Surabhi MITTAL, 2009. "Will OECD Agricultural Trade Reforms Impact India's Crop Prices and Farmers Welfare?," EcoMod2009 21500067, EcoMod.
    11. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    12. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 201106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    13. Surabhi Mittal, 2007. "Oecd Agricultural Trade Reforms Impact On India’s Prices And Producers Welfare," Trade Working Papers 22225, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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