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Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China

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  • Muhammad, Andrew
  • McPhail, Lihong
  • Kiawu, James

Abstract

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that developing countries are negatively affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the United States and competing exporters (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, India, and Uzbekistan). We further project how U.S. programs affect China's imports by country. Results indicate that if U.S. subsidies make other exporting countries worse off, this effect is lessened when global prices respond accordingly. If subsidies are eliminated, China's cotton imports may not fully recover from the temporary spike in global prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 235-249, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:44:y:2012:i:02:p:235-249_00
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    2. Sun, Changyou, 2015. "An investigation of China's import demand for wood pulp and wastepaper," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 113-121.
    3. Chen, Bowen & Villoria, Nelson & Xia, Tian, 2017. "Import Protections in China’s Grain Markets: An Empirical Assessment," 2017: Globalization Adrift, December 3-5, 2017, Washington, D.C. 266817, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Sun, Changyou, 2014. "Recent growth in China's roundwood import and its global implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-53.
    5. Yanfeng Lou & Yezhuang Tian & Kai Wang, 2020. "The Spillover Effect of US Industrial Subsidies on China’s Exports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-12, April.
    6. Xinyao Wang & Dan Li & Yue Yu, 2022. "Current Situation and Optimization Countermeasures of Cotton Subsidy in China Based on WTO Rules," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Muhammad, Andrew & Jones, Keithly G., 2021. "The end of the trade war? Effects of tariff exclusions on U.S. forest products in China," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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