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Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries

  • Antoine Bouet

    (IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute - aaa, Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954)

  • Guillaume Gruere

    (IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute - aaa)

A computable general equilibrium model is applied to evaluate the opportunity costs of not adopting Bt cotton, a genetically-modified (GM) insect resistant cotton, in Benin, Burkina- Faso, Mali, Senegal, Togo, Tanzania, and Uganda when it is adopted in other countries. Our model uniquely employs country-specific partial adoption rates and factor-biased productivity shocks in the cotton and oilseed sectors of all adopting regions. Assuming a 50% adoption rate, the opportunity cost of not adopting Bt cotton in the seven surveyed countries amounts to $41 million per year, which is a significant but lower cost than that suggested by the results of previous studies. Trade liberalization only marginally increases this estimate.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00637587.

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Date of creation: 11 Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00637587
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  1. Antoine Bouet, 2010. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha round," Working Papers hal-00637583, HAL.
  2. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, 08.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2006. "Recent and prospective adoption of genetically modified cotton : a global computable general equilibrium analysis of economic impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3917, The World Bank.
  4. Elbehri, Aziz & Macdonald, Steve, 2004. "Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2049-2064, December.
  5. Valdete Berisha-Krasniqi & Antoine Bouët & Simon Mevel, 2008. "Les accords de partenariat économique. Quels enjeux pour le Sénégal ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 65-116.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Yao, Shunli, 2002. "China, GMOs and World Trade in Agricultural and Textile Products," CEPR Discussion Papers 3171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Antoine Bou�t & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, 08.
  8. Matin Qaim & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Genetically Modified Crops, Corporate Pricing Strategies, and Farmers' Adoption: The Case of Bt Cotton in Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 814-828.
  9. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Antoine Bouet, Yvan Decreux, Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral agricultural trade liberalization: The contrasting fortunes of developing countries in the Doha Round," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp060, IIIS.
  10. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2004. "Biotechnology boosts to crop productivity in China: trade and welfare implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 27-54, October.
  11. Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Horna, J. Daniela & Smale, Melinda, 2008. "Betting on cotton: Potential payoffs and economic risks of adopting transgenic cotton in West Africa," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(2), September.
  12. Price, Gregory K. & Lin, William W. & Falck-Zepeda & Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge, 2003. "Size and Distribution of Market Benefits from Adopting Biotech Crops," Technical Bulletins 184320, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  13. Antoine BOUET & Betina DIMARANAN & Hugo VALIN, 2009. "Biofuels in the world markets: A Computable General Equilibrium assessment of environmental costs related to land use changes," Working Papers 6, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
  14. Gruere, Guillaume & Mehta-Bhatt, Purvi & Sengupta, Debdatta, 2008. "Bt Cotton and farmer suicides in India: Reviewing the evidence," IFPRI discussion papers 808, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  15. Marra, Michele C. & Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2002. "The payoffs to agricultural biotechnology: an assessment of the evidence," EPTD discussion papers 87, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  16. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
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