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More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round? Winners and losers from trade liberalization with a development perspective

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  • Bouët, Antoine
  • Mevel, Simon
  • Orden, David

Abstract

What is at stake in the standoff between the United States and Europe over agriculture in the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies depend heavily on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this study we compare different scenarios for the Doha agriculture negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals currently on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU—based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals—delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouët, Antoine & Mevel, Simon & Orden, David, 2006. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round? Winners and losers from trade liberalization with a development perspective," Conference papers 331498, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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