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More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

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  • Antoine Bouët
  • Simon Mevel
  • David Orden

Abstract

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU - based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals - delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouët & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:8:p:1253-1280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round," Economics Working Papers 041, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    2. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2003. "The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 627-649, May.
    3. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889.
    4. Anderson, James E. & Neary, J. Peter, 2007. "Welfare versus market access: The implications of tariff structure for tariff reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 187-205, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011. "Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
    3. Antoine Bouët & Guillaume P. Gruère, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
    4. Huan-Niemi, Ellen & Kerkela, Leena & Lehtonen, Heikki & Niemi, Jyrki S., 2009. "Implications of Trade Liberalization and Domestic Reforms on EU Agricultural Markets," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 12(4).
    5. BOUET, ANTOINE & Laborde, David, 2010. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha Round," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 319-351, April.
    6. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora’s Box: Modeling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers hal-01299851, HAL.
    7. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2008. "The potential cost of a failed Doha Round:," Issue briefs 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. repec:laf:wpaper:201001 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tina Beuchelt & Detlef Virchow, 2012. "Food sovereignty or the human right to adequate food: which concept serves better as international development policy for global hunger and poverty reduction?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 29(2), pages 259-273, June.
    11. Mehdi Shafaeddin, 2010. "The Political Economy of WTO with Special Reference to NAMA Negotiations," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 22(2), pages 175-196, April.
    12. Bostan, Ionel & Grosu, Veronica, 2011. "General Equilibrium Dynamic Models and the Doha Round Impact on Underdeveloped Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 159-174, March.
    13. repec:laf:wpaper:201002 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Fugazza, Marco, 2007. "A new geography of preferences for Sub-Saharan African countries in a globalizing trading system," MPRA Paper 11575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2017. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the 21st Century: Has it Done the Business?," Working Papers 2017-11, CEPII research center.
    16. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2009. "NAMA as a Tool of De-industrialization of Africa," MPRA Paper 15050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. McDonald, Scott. & Jansen, Marion. & Von Uexkull, Erik., 2012. "The impact of crisis-related changes in trade flows on employment, incomes, regional and sectoral development in Brazil," ILO Working Papers 994689023402676, International Labour Organization.
    18. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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