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Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha Round

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  • BOUET, ANTOINE
  • Laborde, David

Abstract

This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Development Agenda (DDA). We assess potential outcome of the Doha Round as well as four protectionist scenarios using the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In a scenario where applied tariffs of World Trade Organization (WTO) economies would go up to currently bound tariff rates, world trade would decrease by 7.7 % and world welfare by US$353 billion. The economic cost of a failed DDA is here evaluated by the difference between a cooperative scenario (DDA) and a protectionist one (US$412 billion in terms of welfare). Another point of view is to compare a resort to protectionism when the DDA is implemented with a resort to protectionism when the DDA is not implemented. The findings show that this trade agreement could prevent the potential reduction of US$809 billion of trade and, therefore, acts as an efficient multilateral 'preventive' scheme against the adverse consequences of trade "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies.
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  • BOUET, ANTOINE & Laborde, David, 2010. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha Round," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 319-351, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:wotrrv:v:9:y:2010:i:02:p:319-351_99
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    1. repec:laf:wpaper:201003 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "US trade wars with emerging countries in the 21st century: Make America and Its partners lose again," IFPRI discussion papers 1669, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "What next for the DDA? Quantifying the role of negotiation modalities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01299828, HAL.
    4. Popa, Diana, 2011. "Runda Doha: început fără sfârşit
      [Doha Round: the endless beginning]
      ," MPRA Paper 28764, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
    5. Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2015. "Grain emergency reserve cooperation – A theoretical analysis of benefits from a common emergency reserve," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212767, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    7. Antoine Bouët & Guillaume P. Gruère, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
    8. Eugenio Díaz Bonilla & David Laborde, 2015. "The Bali Agreement: An Assessment from the Perspective of Developing Countries," Working Papers id:7477, eSocialSciences.
    9. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    10. repec:fpr:ifpric:9780896292499-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011. "Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
    12. Alan Matthews, 2014. "Doha negotiations on agriculture and future of the WTO multilateral Trade System," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    13. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2010. "Eight years of Doha trade talks," IFPRI discussion papers 997, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. repec:laf:wpaper:201002 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Decreux, Yvan & Fontagné, Lionel, 2015. "What Next for Multilateral Trade Talks? Quantifying the Role of Negotiation Modalities," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 29-43, January.
    16. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ridley, William & Devadoss, Stephen, 2015. "Argentina's Agricultural Policies," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205421, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. repec:fpr:ifpric:9780896292499-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "What Did Happen in the DDA? Quantifying the Role of Negotiation Modalities," Working Papers 2013-38, CEPII research center.
    20. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2010. "Eight Years of Doha Trade Talks: Where Do We Stand?," eJADE: electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization, Agricultural and Development Economics Division, vol. 11(2).
    21. repec:oup:erevae:v:44:y:2017:i:4:p:592-633. is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2017. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the 21st Century: Has it Done the Business?," Working Papers 2017-11, CEPII research center.

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