IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mie/wpaper/459.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations

Author

Listed:
  • Chadha, R.
  • Brown, D.K.
  • Deardorff, A.V.
  • Stern, R.M.

Abstract

The Indian economy has experienced a major transformation during the decade of the 1990s. Apart from the impact of various unilateral economic reforms undertaken since 1991, the economy also had to reorient itself to the changing multilateral trade discipline within the newly written GATT/WTO framework. The unilateral trade policy measures have encompassed exchange-rate policy, foreign investment, external borrowing, import licensing, custom tariffs, and export subsidies. The multilateral aspect of India's WTO commitments regarding trade in goods and services, trade-related investment measures, and intellectual property rights. The present study analyzes the economic effects on India and other major trading countries/regions of the Uruguay Round (UR) trade liberalization and the liberalization that might be undertaken in a new WTO negotiating round. India's welfare gain is expected to be 1.1% ($4.7 billion over its 2005 GDP) when the UR scenarios get fully implemented. The additional welfare gain is an estimated 2.7% ($11.4 billion) when the assumed future WTO round of multilateral trade liberalization is achieved. Resources would be allocated in India to the labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, clothing, leather and leather products, and food, beverages, and tobacco. These sectors would also experience growth in output and exports. Real returns to both labor and capital would increase in the economy. The scale effect (percent change in output per firm) is positive for all the ten sectors of manufacturing, indicating that Indian firms become more efficient than before. Finally, even if India undertakes unilateral trade liberalization of the order indicated in the WTO multilateral scenarios, it would still benefit, although less so than with multilateral liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Chadha, R. & Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 459, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-286, May.
    2. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics,in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872 Elsevier.
    3. repec:fth:michin:453 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Yannis Ioannides, 2006. "Topologies of social interactions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 559-584, August.
    5. Rajesh Chadha & Sanjib Pohit & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1998. "Analysis of India's Policy Reforms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 235-259, March.
    6. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "Impacts on NAFTA Members of Multilateral and Regional Trading Arrangements and Initiatives and Harmonization of NAFTA's External Tariffs," Working Papers 471, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    7. Hoekman, Bernard, 1995. "Tentative first steps : an assessment of the Uruguay Round agreement on services," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1455, The World Bank.
    8. Chadha, R. & Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 459, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    9. Drusilla Brown, 2001. "Child Labour in Latin America: Policy and Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 761-778, June.
    10. Ioannides, Yannis M., 2003. "Interactive property valuations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 145-170, January.
    11. Karen Eggleston, 2001. "Multitasking, Competition and Provider Payment," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0101, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    12. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0108, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    13. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1993. "Protection and Real Wages: Old and New Trade Theories and Their Empirical Conterparts," Working Papers 331, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    14. Ioannides, Yannis M., 2004. "Neighborhood income distributions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 435-457, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, August.
    2. Chadha, R. & Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 459, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    3. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2004. "A different approach to WTO negotiations in services," CPB Discussion Paper 36, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. George Norman & Lynne Pepall & Dan Richards, 2001. "Versioning, Brand-Stretching, and the Evolution of e-Commerce Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0114, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    5. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2015. "Economic implications of a potential free trade agreement between India and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7212, The World Bank.
    6. Martha Rodriguez & Bruno Seminario, 2006. "Efectos potenciales de la desgravación arancelaria de un Tratado de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos," Working Papers 06-12, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    INTERNATIONAL TRADE ; TRADE POLICY;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (FSPP Webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/riumius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.