IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v27y2004i8p1223-1253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

Author

Listed:
  • John Whalley

Abstract

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:8:p:1223-1253
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00648.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00648.x
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markusen, James & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David, 2000. "Foreign direct investment in services and the domestic market for expertise," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2413, The World Bank.
    2. Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang & Will Martin, 2002. "Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-33.
    3. Mattoo, Aaditya & Rathindran, Randeep, 2006. "Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Illustration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 64-98.
    4. Chadha, R. & Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 459, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    5. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round," Working Papers 489, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    6. John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204, February.
    7. Joseph F. Francois & Lutger Schuknecht, 1999. "Trade in Financial Services: Procompetitive Effects and Growth Performance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-028/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Keshab Bhattarai & John Whalley, 2006. "The Division and Size of Gains from Liberalization in Service Networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 348-361, August.
    9. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    10. Martin, W. & Winters, L.A., 1995. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 307, World Bank.
    11. Cillian Ryan, 1990. "Trade Liberalisation and Financial Services," NBER Chapters, in: New Issues in the Uruguay Round, pages 349-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Melvin, James R, 1989. "Trade in Producer Services: A Heckscher-Ohlin Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1180-1196, October.
    13. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    14. Zerby, J A & Conlon, R M, 1983. "Joint Costs and Intra-Tariff Cross-Subsidies: The Case of Liner Shipping," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 383-396, June.
    15. Ryan, Cillian, 1992. "The Integration of Financial Services and Economic Welfare after `1992'," CEPR Discussion Papers 677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow, 2002. "Multilateral liberalisation of services trade," International Trade 0207002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Christopher Findlay, 1997. "The APEC Air Transport Schedule," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 273, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Aadtya Mattoo, 2000. "Financial Services and the WTO: Liberalisation Commitments of the Developing and Transition Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 351-386, March.
    19. Deardoff, A.V. & Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M. & Fox, A.K., 1995. "Computational Analysis of Goods and Services Liberalization in the Uruguay Round," Working Papers 379, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    20. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    21. repec:fth:michin:459 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ngee Choon Chia & Whalley, John, 1997. "A numerical example showing globally welfare-worsening liberalization of international trade in banking services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 119-127, April.
    23. Cillian Ryan, 1990. "Trade Liberalisation and Financial Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 349-366, September.
    24. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1984. "Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility : Calculations and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-75.
    25. Joseph Francois & Hugh M. Arce & Kenneth A. Reinert & Joseph E. Flynn, 1996. "Commercial Policy and the Domestic Carrying Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 181-198, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Whalley, 2003. "Liberalization in China's Key Service Sectors Following WTO Accession: Some Scenarios and Issues of Measurement," NBER Working Papers 10143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ajitava Raychaudhuri & Prabir De, 2007. "Assessing Barriers to Trade in Education Services in Developing Asia - Pacific Countries:An Empirical Exercise," Working Papers 3407, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    3. Hui Huang & John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2005. "Trade Liberalization in a Joint Spatial Inter-Temporal Trade Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1463, CESifo.
    4. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2006. "Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 142-162, October.
    5. John Whalley, 2008. "Globalisation and Values," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(11), pages 1503-1524, November.
    6. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 303-377, Elsevier.
    7. Elisabeth M. Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE Modeling of Market Access in Services," Economics working papers 2012-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    8. Mattoo, Aaditya, 2005. "Services in a development round : three goals and three proposals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3718, The World Bank.
    9. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "Business services outsourcing and economic growth: Evidence from a dynamic panel data approach," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-049, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    10. Lee-Rong Wang & Chung-Hua Shen & Ching-Yang Liang, 2008. "Financial Liberalization under the WTO and Its Relationship with the Macro Economy," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 315-345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1601-1643, Elsevier.
    12. Konan, Denise Eby & Van Assche, Ari, 2007. "Regulation, market structure and service trade liberalization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 895-923, November.
    13. Joseph Francois & Olga Pindyuk & Julia Woerz, 2008. "Trade Effects of Services Trade Liberalization in the EU," IIDE Discussion Papers 20080801, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    14. Dilli Raj Khanal, 2007. "Services Trade in Developing Asia: A Case Study of the Banking and Insurance Sector in Nepal," ARTNeT Working Papers 39, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    15. Dilli Raj Khanal, 2007. "Services Trade in Developing Asia:A Case Study of the Banking and Insurance Sector in Nepal," Working Papers 3907, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    16. Philipp Harms & Aaditya Mattoo & Ludger Schuknecht, 2003. "Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(1), pages 82-113, March.
    17. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Hejing Chen & John Whalley, 2014. "China'S Service Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 746-774, September.
    18. Lücke, Matthias & Spinanger, Dean, 2004. "Liberalizing international trade in services: Challenges and opportunities for developing countries," Kiel Discussion Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Hui Huang & John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2009. "Exploring policy options in joint intertemporal-spatial trade models using an incomplete markets approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 41(1), pages 131-145, October.
    20. Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang & Will Martin, 2002. "Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-33.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:8:p:1223-1253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.