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Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity

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  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Keeney, Roman
  • Valenzuela, Ernesto

Abstract

This paper presents a validation experiment of a global CGE trade model widely used for analysis of trade liberalization. We focus on the ability of the model to reproduce price volatility in wheat markets. The literature on model validation is reviewed with an eye towards designing an appropriate methodology for validating large scale CGE models. The validation experiment results indicate that in its current form, the GTAP-AGR model is incapable of reproducing wheat market price volatility and that trade and poverty analysis taking these prices as inputs might be wrongly influenced. We conclude that model validation is tractable and an important component of analysis, as it points to areas to consider for refining analysis. In the specific case presented here, it seems that the Armington structure and trade elasticities are influential in whether the model over our under predicts price volatility for a specific region based on its net trade position for wheat.

Suggested Citation

  • Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2004. "Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318, May.
    4. Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22000, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    6. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 115-141, June.
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    11. Cranfield, J. A. L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 289-307, August.
    12. McCarl, Bruce A., 1984. "Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(03), December.
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    14. Ludo Peeters & Yves Surry, 1997. "A Review Of The Arts Of Estimating Price-Responsiveness Of Feed Demand In The European Union," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-3), pages 379-392.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas W., 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Alexandre Gohin & Laure Latruffe, 2006. "The Luxembourg Common Agricultural Policy Reform and the European Food Industries: What's at Stake?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(1), pages 175-194, March.
    3. Monika Verma & Thomas W. Hertel & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2011. "Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 190-211, May.

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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

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