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Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models

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  • McCarl, Bruce A.

Abstract

Model validation is a topic which has a long history in the literature This article attempts to focus much of the previous discussion upon agricultural economics models. True model validation is not possible. Nevertheless, model validation exercises improve the relevancy of models and strengthen the theoretical oasis for modelling. Procedures are given for conducting validation exercises and for dealing with models which fail such exercises. In addition. comments appear on considerations involved with the validation of risk models.

Suggested Citation

  • McCarl, Bruce A., 1984. "Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(03), pages 1-21, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12282
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12282
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    2. Pachepsky, L. B. & Haskett, J. D. & Acock, B., 1996. "An adequate model of photosynthesis--I Parameterization, validation and comparison of models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 209-225.
    3. Graeme J. Doole & David J. Pannell, 2012. "Empirical evaluation of nonpoint pollution policies under agent heterogeneity: regulating intensive dairy production in the Waikato region of New Zealand," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(1), pages 82-101, January.
    4. Musser, Wesley N. & Tew, Bernard V., 1984. "Use Of Biophysical Simulation In Production Economics," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, July.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    6. Graeme J. Doole & David J. Pannell, 2013. "A process for the development and application of simulation models in applied economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(1), pages 79-103, January.
    7. Mitchell, P. L., 1997. "Misuse of regression for empirical validation of models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 313-326, July.
    8. Dillon, Carl R. & Mjelde, James W. & McCarl, Bruce A., 1989. "Comments On Development And Use Of Biophysical Simulation Models," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270723, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Boggess, William G. & Anaman, Kwabena A. & Hanson, Gregory D., 1985. "Importance, Causes, And Management Responses To Farm Risks: Evidence From Florida And Alabama," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Michiel van Dijk & George Philippidis & Geert Woltjer, 2016. "Catching up with history: A methodology to validate global CGE models," FOODSECURE Technical papers 9, LEI Wageningen UR.
    11. Pannell, David J. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Schilizzi, Steven, 1996. "Debugging Mathematical Programming Models: Principles and Practical Strategies," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(01), pages 1-15, April.
    12. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2004. "Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Bathgate, Andrew D. & Kingwell, Ross S. & O'Connell, Michael, 1999. "WOOL’S FUTURE in WESTERN AUSTRALIA and the R&D IMPLICATIONS: A Discussion Paper," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123761, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. McCarl, Bruce A., 1986. "Innovations In Programming Techniques For Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1986: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 23-26, 1986, Tampa, Florida 271825, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    15. Quagrainie, Kwamena K. & Unterschultz, James R. & Jeffrey, Scott R., 2000. "The Impact Of Post-Farmgate Value-Adding On Western Canadian Agriculture," 2000 Annual Meeting, June 29-July 1, 2000, Vancouver, British Columbia 36379, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Unterschultz, James R. & Jeffrey, Scott R. & Quagrainie, Kwamena K., 2000. "Value-Adding 20 Billion By 2005: Impact At The Alberta Farm Gate," Project Report Series 24049, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    17. Aditya U. Kulkarni & Alejandro Salado & Peng Xu & Christian Wernz, 2021. "An evaluation of the optimality of frequent verification for vertically integrated systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 17-33, January.

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