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The effects of climate change on the farm sector in the Western Cape

Author

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  • Erasmus, Barend
  • van Jaarsveld, Albert
  • van Zyl, Johan
  • Vink, Nick

Abstract

This paper links two different methodologies to determine the effects of climate change on the Western Cape farm sector. First, it uses a general circulation model (GCM) to model future climate change in the Western Cape, particularly with respect to precipitation. Second, a sector mathematical programming model of the Western Cape farm sector is used to incorporate the predicted climate change, specifically rainfall, from the GCM to determine the effects on key variables of the regional farm economy. In summary, results indicate that future climate change will lead to lower precipitation, which implies that less water will be available to agriculture in the Western Cape. This will have a negative overall effect on the Western Cape farm economy. Both producer welfare and consumer welfare will decrease. Total employment in the farm sector will also decrease as producers switch to a more extensive production pattern. The total decline in welfare, therefore, will fall disproportionately on the poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Erasmus, Barend & van Jaarsveld, Albert & van Zyl, Johan & Vink, Nick, 2000. "The effects of climate change on the farm sector in the Western Cape," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(4), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:54217
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.54217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay & Limin Wang & Marcus Wijnen, 2011. "Improving Household Survey Instruments for Understanding Agricultural Household Adaptation to Climate Change : Water Stress and Variability," World Bank Publications - Reports 12764, The World Bank Group.
    2. Gokan, Toshitaka & Kichko, Sergey & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2019. "How do trade and communication costs shape the spatial organization of firms?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Glwadys A. Gbetibouo & Claudia Ringler & Rashid Hassan, 2010. "Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 175-187, August.
    4. Deressa, T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Poonyth, Daneswar, 2005. "Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Gbetibouo, Glwadys Aymone & Ringler, Claudia, 2009. "Mapping South African farming sector vulnerability to climate change and variability: A subnational assessment," IFPRI discussion papers 885, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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