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Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in South Africa: The Case of The Western Cape

Author

Listed:
  • van Zyl, Johan
  • Vink, Nick
  • Erasmus, Barend
  • van Jaarsveld, Albert
  • Kirsten, Johann F.

Abstract

Two different methodologies are linked to determine the effects of climate change on the Western Cape farm sector in South Africa. First, it uses a general circulation model to model climate change. Second, a sectoral mathematical programming model is used to determine these effects on key variables of the farm economy. Results indicate that less water will be available to agriculture. This will have a negative overall impact, with both producer and consumer welfare decreasing. Total employment in the farm sector will also decrease as producers switch to extensive farming. The total decline in welfare falls disproportionately on the poor.

Suggested Citation

  • van Zyl, Johan & Vink, Nick & Erasmus, Barend & van Jaarsveld, Albert & Kirsten, Johann F., 2001. "Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in South Africa: The Case of The Western Cape," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide 126058, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare01:126058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. B. R. Hazell, 1971. "A Linear Alternative to Quadratic and Semivariance Programming for Farm Planning under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 53-62.
    2. Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    3. P. B. R. Hazell & P. L. Scandizzo, 1974. "Competitive Demand Structures under Risk in Agricultural Linear Programming Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 235-244.
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