Wie viel bringt eine verbesserte Produktionsprogrammplanung auf der Grundlage einer systematischen Auswertung empirischer Zeitreihen? â€“ Die Bedeutung von Prognosemodellen bei der Optimierung unter Unsicherheit
In this paper we examine whether there is room for improvement in farm program decisions through the integration of formal mathematical optimisation into the planning process. Probing the potential for improvement, we investigate the cases of four Brandenburg cash crop farms over the last six years. We find that their total gross margins could have been increased significantly through a more sophisticated program planning. However, we also find that the superiority of formalised planning approaches depends on the quality of the data. The superior formal planning approach includes, in contrast to farmersâ€™ ad hoc planning, a systematic time series analysis of gross margins and a stochastic optimisation model. For each of the six years, the formal planning approach provides optimised alternative programs based on the information available to the farmers at the respective time of planning. In order to avoid solutions that exceed the farmersâ€™ risk tolerance, the variance of the observed programâ€™s total gross margin which implicitly reflects the risk attitude of the individual farmer is used as an upper bound in the optimisation. Using the yields and prices realised at the end of each planning period, the total gross margins that could have been realized through the formally optimised programs in each year are then compared to those that were actually realised.
Volume (Year): 55 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Philippstr. 13, 10115 Berlin|
Phone: +49 (0)30 2093 6305
Fax: +49 (0)30 2093 6497
Web page: http://www.gjae-online.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- P. B. R. Hazell, 1971. "A Linear Alternative to Quadratic and Semivariance Programming for Farm Planning under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 53-62.
- Darren Hudson & Keith Coble & Jayson Lusk, 2005. "Consistency of risk premium measures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 41-49, 07.
- Doppler, W. & MÃ¤rz, U., 1989. "Die Behandlung von Verteilungen in stochastischen Methoden der Betriebsplanung," Proceedings "Schriften der Gesellschaft fÃ¼r Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.", German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 25, pages -.
- B. Curtis Eaves, 1971. "On Quadratic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 698-711, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.