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Consistency of risk premium measures

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  • Darren Hudson
  • Keith Coble
  • Jayson Lusk

Abstract

This research uses the results of a series of within‐sample experiments to elicit risk premium measures from agricultural producers. Results show that there is little consistency between measures in different contexts and using different elicitation methods, suggesting that underlying risk preferences are not consistent. These results highlight some of the difficulty with expected utility theory and risk measurement.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren Hudson & Keith Coble & Jayson Lusk, 2005. "Consistency of risk premium measures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 41-49, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:33:y:2005:i:1:p:41-49
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2005.00366.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Musshoff & Norbert Hirschauer, 2008. "Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 17-36, March.
    2. van der Pol, Marjon & Ruggeri, Matteo, 2008. "Is risk attitude outcome specific within the health domain?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 706-717, May.
    3. Diekmann, Anton & Wolbert-Haverkamp, Matthias & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2014. "Die Bewertung der Umstellung einer einjährigen Ackerkultur auf den Anbau von Miscanthus – Eine Anwendung des Realoptionsansatzes," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 260812, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    4. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2007. "What benefits are to be derived from improved farm program planning approaches? - The role of time series models and stochastic optimization," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 11-27, December.
    5. Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Efficiency of selected risk management instruments: An empirical analysis of risk reduction in Kazakhstani crop production," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 40, number 92323.
    6. Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Risk preferences and the timing of marriage and childbearing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 439-460, May.
    7. Franken, Jason R.V. & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Measuring Risk Attitude and Relation to Marketing Behavior," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124471, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Pemsl, D. & Waibel, H., 2007. "Assessing the profitability of different crop protection strategies in cotton: Case study results from Shandong Province, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 28-36, December.
    9. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2006. "Wie viel bringt eine verbesserte Produktionsprogrammplanung auf der Grundlage einer systematischen Auswertung empirischer Zeitreihen? – Die Bedeutung von Prognosemodellen bei der Optimierung unter Uns," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 55(04), pages 1-13.
    10. Buchholz, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver, 2014. "The role of weather derivatives and portfolio effects in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 34-44.
    11. Zafer Akýn & Ý. Erdem Seçilmiþ, 2015. "Risk Behavior, Risk Perception and Online Shopping: An Experimental Approach," IPEK Working Papers 1507, Ipek University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    12. Simone Cerroni, 2020. "Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 707-724, September.
    13. Matteo Ruggeri & Carlo Drago, 2021. "Is risk attitude toward health outcomes context driven?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 63-77, February.
    14. Patrick Bell & Rozlyn Engel & Darren Hudson & Julian Jamison & William Skimmyhorn, 2018. "Risk preferences in future military leaders," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 2(2), pages 11-24, September.
    15. Haverkamp, Matthias Wolbert & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Are short rotation coppices an alternative to traditional agricultural land use in Germany? A real options approach," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152184, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    16. Mußhoff, O. & Hirschauer, N., 2006. "Die Rehabilitation von Optimierungsverfahren? - Eine Analyse des Anbauverhaltens ausgewählter Brandenburger Marktfruchtbetriebe," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    17. Alfnes, Frode & Rickertsen, Kyrre & Ueland, Oydis, 2005. "Experimental Evidence of Risk Aversion in Consumer Markets: The Case of Beef Tenderness," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19285, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 2012. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(3), pages 1-28, August.
    19. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2008. "Sophisticated Program Planning Approaches Generate Large Benefits in High Risk Crop Farming," 82nd Annual Conference, March 31 - April 2, 2008, Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, UK 36865, Agricultural Economics Society.
    20. Frode Alfnes & Kyrre Rickertsen & Øydis Ueland, 2008. "Consumer attitudes toward low stake risk in food markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(23), pages 3039-3049.
    21. Kellner, Ulla & Musshoff, Oliver, 2011. "Precipitation or water capacity indices? An analysis of the benefits of alternative underlyings for index insurance," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(8), pages 645-653, October.
    22. Oliver Mußhoff & Norbert Hirschauer, 2007. "Improved program planning with formal models? The case of high risk crop farming in Northeast Germany," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 15(2), pages 127-141, June.
    23. Jason R.V. Franken & Joost M.E. Pennings & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(5), pages 525-535, September.

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