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Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Drusilla K. Brown

    (Tufts University)

  • Kozo Kiyota

    (Yokohama National University and University of Michingan)

  • Robert M. Stern

    (University of Michingan)

Abstract

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S.-Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U.S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U.S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements. In comparison to the welfare gains from the U.S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U.S. and Japan FTAs are based on "hub" and "spoke" arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.

Suggested Citation

  • Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies," Working Papers 515, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:515
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
    2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 803-828, June.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America, Australia and Morocco," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1441-1490, October.
    5. repec:wsi:wschap:9789812798091_0013 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Accession of Chile to the NAFTA and Western Hemisphere Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 145-174, February.
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    9. James Levinsohn & Margaret McMillan, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco," Working Papers 526, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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    12. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)," Working Papers 514, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    13. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 77-104.
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    16. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0108, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    17. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2009. "Computable General Equilibrium Estimates of the Gains from US-Canadian Trade Liberalization," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Globalization And International Trade Policies, chapter 13, pages 425-481 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Warwick McKibbin & Jong-Wha Lee & Inkyo Cheong, 2004. "A dynamic analysis of the Korea-Japan free trade area: simulations with the G-cubed Asia-Pacific model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 3-32.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
    2. Jung Hur & Backhoon Song, 2007. "What Kinds of Countries Have More Free Trade Partner Countries? - Count Regression Analysis," Trade Working Papers 22002, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Drusilla Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert Stern, 2006. "An Analysis of the U.S.-SACU FTA Negotiations," Working Papers 545, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    4. Alan V. Deardorff, 2007. "Trade Policy Options for Korea Trade Policy Options for Korea Outside the Doha Round Outside the Doha Round," Working Papers 568, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    5. Soo Yuen Chong & Jung Hur, 2007. "Overlapping Free Trade Agreements of Singapore-USA-Japan : A Computational Analysis," Trade Working Papers 21931, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Soo Yuen Chong & Jung Hur, 2008. "Small Hubs, Large Spokes and Overlapping Free Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1625-1665, December.
    7. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "What Should the Developing Countries Do in the Context of the Current Impasse of the Doha Round?," Working Papers 559, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    8. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2008. "An Analysis of a US-Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Free Trade Agreement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 461-484, March.
    9. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    10. Deardorff, Alan V. & Stern, Robert M., 2009. "Alternatives to the Doha Round," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 526-539, July.
    11. Nugraheni, Reninta Dewi & Widodo, Tri, 2018. "The Impact of ASEAN’S FTAs with China, Japan, Korea and Australia-New Zealand: An Analysis in GTAP Framework," MPRA Paper 86693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Escap (ed.), 2008. "Emerging Trade Issues For Policymakers In Developing Countries In Asia And The Pacific," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), volume 64, number tipub2526.

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