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Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Drusilla K. Brown

    (Tufts University)

  • Kozo Kiyota

    (Yokohama National University)

  • Robert M. Stern

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia, and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.

Suggested Citation

  • Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco," Working Papers 527, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:527
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    File URL: http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers526-550/r527.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yongzheng Yang & Alvin Hilaire, 2003. "The United States and the New Regionalism/ Bilateralism," IMF Working Papers 03/206, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
    2. Bussolo, Maurizio & Niimi, Yoko, 2006. "Do regional trade pacts benefit the poor ? An illustration from the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3850, The World Bank.
    3. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson, 2007. "Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another look at the AUSFTA," Discussion Papers 2007-23, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2006. "Computational Analysis of the Menu of US-Japan Trade Policies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 805-855, June.
    5. Balistreri, Edward J. & Markusen, James R., 2009. "Sub-national differentiation and the role of the firm in optimal international pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-62, January.
    6. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson, 2009. "Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another Look at the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(4), pages 435-452.
    7. Bussolo, Maurizio & Niimi, Yoko, 2009. "Do Regional Trade Pacts Benefit the Poor? An Illustration from Dominican Republic--Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 146-160, January.
    8. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Rossbach, Jack & Ruhl, Kim J., 2015. "Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 289-297.
    9. Walkenhorst, Peter & Malouche, Mariem, 2006. "Trade Policy and Export Performance in Morocco," MPRA Paper 23119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mahinda Siriwardana, 2006. "Australia's Involvement in Free Trade Agreements: An Economic Evaluation," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 3-20.
    11. Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2007. "The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 117-133, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Agreements; Unilateral Liberalization; Multilateral Liberalization;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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